Observe as much as “So that you assume we’re in a recession as of starting August”…and rejoinder to these who consider we’ve already been in recession for some time.
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for US (inexperienced). Supply: NY Fed through FRED, OECD, WECI.
The WEI studying for the week ending 8/6 of three.2 is interpretable as a y/y quarter development of three.2% if the three.2 studying had been to persist for a whole quarter. The OECD Weekly Tracker studying of 1.9 is interpretable as a y/y development fee of 1.9% for yr ending 8/6. The Baumeister et al. studying of two.1% for the week ending 6/25 is interpreted as a 2.1% development fee in extra of long run development development fee. Common development of US GDP over the 2000-19 interval is about 2%.
Determine 2: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for US plus 2% development (inexperienced). Supply: NY Fed through FRED, OECD, WECI, and creator’s calculations.
The abstract is that the WEI (10 parts) signifies continued sturdy development by way of 8/6. The OECD Weekly Tracker, based mostly on Google Tendencies and machine studying, suggests a slowdown in Could-July 2022 (however no adverse readings). Baumeister et al. WECI (based mostly on 25 indicators) after including in a development exhibits an analogous sample to the WEI (comparability is proven in appendix to Baumeister et al.)
How did these sequence interpret the developments over the past recession (Unadjusted WECI proven under).
Determine 3: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Situations Index for US (inexperienced). NBER outlined recession dates shaded grey. Supply: NY Fed through FRED, OECD, WECI, NBER.
The foregoing means that as of 8/6, the US isn’t in a contracting state, as summarized by numerous underlying macro indicators.
