There aren’t many measures of euro space huge financial exercise at larger than month-to-month frequency, to my information. One collection is the Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker, based mostly upon huge knowledge and machine studying, mentioned right here. VoxEU put up right here. This measure reveals deceleration within the week by 9/17.
Determine 1: Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker for Euro Space (black), Germany (blue), France (inexperienced), Italy (crimson), all in %. OECD.
The OECD Weekly Tracker studying of 1.6 is interpretable as a y/y development fee of 1.6% for 12 months ending 9/17. How nicely does the OECD Weekly Tracker to for the Euro Space? Right here is the Tracker time averaged to adapt to quarterly knowledge.
Determine 2: Yr-on-year Euro space actual GDP development (teal), and implied development from Weekly Tracker (black), each in %. Weekly Tracker for Q3 is through 9/17. CEPR outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gentle inexperienced. Supply: Eurostat through FRED, OECD, CEPR, and creator’s calculations.
The Weekly Tracker follows q/q annualized development fairly nicely for the Euro space (it’s not so good for the US).
What’s obvious is that GDP development is decelerating — right down to 2%. Curiously, the Cascaldi-Garcia, Ferreira, Giannone & Modugno Euro space nowcast of 9/23 is for 0.1% q/q development, which is in flip in step with 2.03% y/y development.
(The Deutsche Bundesbank as a collection for Germany, right here.)
Addendum:
Curiously, Deutsche Financial institution, which has simply up to date its forecasts, sees a small q/q decline in Euro space GDP in Q3, and deep declines in subsequent quarters, of -1, -1.2, and -0.5 proportion factors.
Supply: Sidorov, et al. “Forecast Replace: Deeper inflationary recession,” Focus Europe, Deutsche Financial institution, 21 September 2022.
