The GDP Outlook: Nowcast vs. Forecast

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Atlanta Fed GDPNow at 4% q/q in This fall.

Determine 1: GDP as reported (black), WSJ October survey (crimson), GDPNow (tan sq.), and Goldman Sachs (inexperienced triangle), all in bn. Chained 2012$, SAAR. . Supply: BEA 2022Q3 advance, WSJ, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs (11/9/2022), and creator’s calculations.

Within the brief time period, the decline in reported GDP appears over. It’s necessary to recall that we are going to get a greater learn on GDP, and perception into GDO, with the following launch at finish November. For now, listed below are the opposite measures of GDP from the revenue facet (GDI), and the common of expenditure and revenue sides (i.e., GDO).

Determine 2: GDP as reported (black), GDPNow (tan sq.), GDI (pink), and GDO (teal), all in bn. Chained 2012$, SAAR. Supply: BEA 2022Q3 advance, WSJ, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs (11/9/2022), and creator’s calculations.

 



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