That’s the message from PCE deflators as we speak.
Determine 1: Month-on-month inflation annualized, for CPI (daring blue), core CPI (tan), PCE deflator (daring sky blue), and core PCE deflator (mild inexperienced). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, BEA through FRED, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
And the quarter-on-quarter foundation, the deceleration appears obvious, besides maybe for core CPI.
Determine 2: Quarter-on-quarter inflation annualized, for CPI (daring blue), core CPI (tan), PCE deflator (daring sky blue), and core PCE deflator (mild inexperienced). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, BEA through FRED, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
Whereas year-ahead Michigan family expectations of inflation are up slight in November (5.1% prel vs 5% in October), they’re nonetheless down vs. March-April 2022 (5.4%).