Because the NFL season marches towards its conclusion, bettors perceive which groups are good, which groups are dangerous, and which groups haven’t any shot of reaching the postseason. All of that can play a task in how betting traces are made, change over the course of the week, and the way they’re guess on. Oftentimes, the favorites will obtain a majority of bets as a result of bettors perceive which crew is healthier. Nonetheless, often, an underdog squeaks by means of the cracks and will get the chance to tug off an upset, however this time, bettors are seeing by means of it.
In keeping with OddsChecker US, the Lions, regardless of opening up as 0.5-point underdogs at dwelling to the Jacksonville Jaguars, are getting 70 p.c of the bets of their favor. And truthfully, I nonetheless suppose that quantity is low.
This looks like an apparent case of “What have you ever performed for me currently?” With Jacksonville coming off an exhilarating one-point victory over Baltimore, oddsmakers appeared inclined to make the Jaguars the favourite of their following recreation, regardless of having an terrible historical past of being the favourite on the street. Are you aware the final time Jacksonville was favored on the street? Week 1 of 2021 in opposition to fellow punching bag Houston. The Jags misplaced by 16. Jacksonville hasn’t gained a recreation on the street it was favored in since 2019, when the crew beat the Bengals, 27-17. Cincy completed that season 2-14. Secure to say, this yr’s Lions are perhaps just a little higher than these Bengals have been.
Detroit is contemporary off a 28-25 loss to the Buffalo Payments. The Lions misplaced by three factors to a Tremendous Bowl contender, however are the underdogs at dwelling now? That’s recency bias. Sure, Trevor Lawrence led an excellent game-winning drive to beat Baltimore, however you may’t deny that the Lions have had significantly better outings as a complete. A 3-point loss to the Eagles. A four-point loss to the Vikings. A 3-point loss to the Seahawks. A four-point loss to the Dolphins. Wins over a scorching Chicago Bears squad, and the New York Giants. They held Aaron Rodgers to 9 factors! Jacksonville, then again, misplaced to the Giants. The Jags misplaced by eight to the Eagles, and Philly has been much less spectacular because the season has progressed. Their solely spectacular wins have been Baltimore and a 38-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers…again in Week 3.
Sure, the Lions’ protection is atrocious, however the Jaguars’ isn’t significantly better. Detroit ranks useless final in yards allowed (414.5); the Jaguars rank twenty fourth (362.9). Each groups depend on turnovers to maintain their offense in video games, and whereas Jacksonville has secured extra takeaways than Detroit on the season (16 to 14), greater than half of the Jags’ takeaways got here within the first three weeks of the season after they began 2-1. Detroit, then again, has compelled at the very least one turnover in each recreation since Week 1. Sure, Jacksonville has picked their takeaway recreation up in latest weeks, having compelled six of their final three contests, however the Lions’ offense has dedicated solely three turnovers of their final 5 video games.
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Moreover, Amon-Ra St. Brown goes to be an issue for Jacksonville’s protection. The Jaguars D surrendered 146 yards to Davante Adams three weeks in the past, and 134 yards to Michael Pittman only a few weeks prior. Receivers with heavy goal shares of their offense are inclined to do phenomenally properly in opposition to Jacksonville’s secondary, and St. Brown is ninth in goal share (28.5 p.c) and first in targets per route run. When wholesome, he’s one of the concerned large receivers within the NFL and the Jaguars haven’t proven they know easy methods to defend in opposition to somebody that dynamic. Contemplating that St. Brown’s greatest energy is his YAC-ability, and the Jaguars have allowed the fifth-most YAC and accrued the second-most missed tackles within the NFL. That’s simply extra dangerous information for the Duval County Cats.
After American bettors misplaced boatloads of cash betting on the U.S. Males’s Nationwide Soccer Group to beat the Netherlands within the Spherical of 16, it’s good to see extra bettors coming to their senses and betting on the Lions, even when they’re an underdog. Whereas something can occur on any given Sunday, the Lions have been too good just lately to permit the Jaguars to stroll away with a simple win. I’m taking that +0.5 line daily of the week.
