2:00PM Water Cooler 12/6/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Hen Tune of the Day

Chestnut-eared Bunting, Buryatia, Russia. “A number of cuts from a male chicken, principally perched on wire fences on the fringe of grassy pastures and steppe not removed from a marsh.” Actually pretty. And 4 minutes lengthy!

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to assume; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Capitol Seizure

“Home January 6 committee has determined to make legal referrals, chairman says” [CNN]. Good. Let’s have it out. Besides: “The Home choose committee investigating the January 6, 2021, assault on the US Capitol has determined to make legal referrals to the Division of Justice, the panel’s chairman, Rep. Bennie Thompson, informed reporters Tuesday.Thompson, a Mississippi Democrat, mentioned .” Oh for pity’s sake. Cease teasing. Extra: “Nonetheless, the concept of a legal referral of Trump, even when solely symbolic in nature, has hung like a shadow over the panel because it was first fashioned, and plenty of members felt it was a essential measure with a purpose to full its work.” • If the partitions are closing in, cost Trump. In the event that they’re not, don’t. This isn’t onerous!

Biden Administration

“REAL ID enforcement is delayed once more to 2025” [NPR]. • That’s a rattling disgrace.

“Unique: Musk’s Neuralink faces federal probe, worker backlash over animal assessments” [Reuters]. • Horrid venture, curious timing.

“Greater than 70% of voters in ballot need Biden to launch secret JFK assassination information” [NBC]. “Greater than 7 in 10 voters need President Joe Biden to honor a dedication he made final yr and launch the ultimate trove of JFK assassination information on Dec. 15, in keeping with a ballot launched Tuesday in coordination with a analysis group that sued the administration to pressure extra doc disclosure.” • Wait. You’re telling me Biden didn’t honor a dedication?

“Pelosi, Democrats search string of victories in remaining days” [The Hill]. “Maybe essentially the most distinguished proposal on the docket is the Respect for Marriage Act, which would supply federal protections for same-sex marriage nationwide. These rights have been explicitly denied by the 1996 Protection of Marriage Act, which Pelosi had fiercely opposed, breaking on the time together with her White Home ally in President Clinton.” • Lol, what about codifying abortion?

2022

I don’t find out about pack journalism, however primarily based on these headlines, “pack editorship” is a factor.

GA: “5 issues to look at within the Georgia Senate runoff” [The Hill]. Can Election Day turnout save Walker? Are the polls fallacious, once more? How does Trump react? Has Walker misplaced the center? Does Warnock thank Biden? • Warnock owes me 600 bucks.

GA: “Georgia Senate race between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker: 5 issues to look at” [Los Angeles Times]. How lengthy will voters have to attend in line? Will early turnout in Democratic strongholds push Warnock over the road? Or will the GOP base pack the polls on election day? Will Trump’s affect make a distinction both manner? Will swing voters present up for Warnock?

GA: “5 issues to look at as Georgia decides Warnock vs. Walker Senate runoff” [CNN]. Turnout increase or bust? Democrats search a real majority. Trump’s final shot at a Senate win. Kemp appears to be like to one-up Trump another time. Georgia, a swing state? We’ll see.

* * *

AZ: “Arizona certifies 2022 election outcomes amid risk of extra GOP challenges” [The Hill]. “Arizona officers licensed the state’s vote canvass on Monday, formally declaring winners within the high-profile gubernatorial and Senate races, amongst different contests, as GOP figures vow to struggle the election leads to courtroom. The as soon as low-profile certification course of changed into a fierce battle between election officers, Republican candidates and a few county boards because the GOP seized on printer malfunctions within the state’s most populous county, partly main Arizona to turn out to be an epicenter for voter disenfranchisement allegations. Election officers have acknowledged mishaps however insist no voter was disenfranchised. Some GOP figures and their supporters claimed officers have been mendacity, unsuccessfully calling on county boards to not certify their canvasses in current days earlier than turning their ire to Monday’s state-level certification. However Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D), who’s now governor-elect, Gov. Doug Ducey (R), state Lawyer Basic Mark Brnovich (R) and Arizona Supreme Courtroom Chief Justice Robert Brutinel nonetheless met to canvass final month’s election on Monday, a timeline mandated by state regulation.”

2024

“EXCLUSIVE: Biden’s married, non-binary nuclear waste guru who stole girl’s $2,325 bag from airport hosted SPANKING seminar at kink convention simply weeks later – beneath ‘NuclearNerd’ nickname that’s nonetheless in use on fetish hookup web site” [Daily Mail]. • 2024 goes to be so ugly.

* * *

SC: “Biden Is Placing South Carolina First. I Gained’t Vote for That.” [Faiz Shakir, New York Times]. “The 2020 caucuses in Iowa — the state that has been first on the calendar for many years — have been a catastrophe.” No, it wasn’t. It was theft, for which, satirically, Iowa Democrats weren’t rewarded. Extra: “Everyone knows why South Carolina received the nod. President Biden, Consultant Jim Clyburn and plenty of of his prime supporters have been buoyed by their marketing campaign’s comeback in February 2020 when the state delivered Mr. Biden his first victory of the season — and an enormous one at that…. South Carolina is just not a battleground state: Mr. Trump carried it by double digits in 2020. It’s far more ideologically and culturally conservative than our social gathering and our nation. And the state is just not trending in any manner towards the Democratic Celebration.” • Shakir does perceive that making SC first is a payoff to Clyburn. Shakir both doesn’t perceive or can’t say that (a) the Black Misleadership Class, as embodied by Clyburn and the Congressional Black Caucus, is deeply corrupt and reactionary, (b) that Biden is rigging the first for Harris, and (c) that Biden, and liberal Democrats on the whole, are ensuring that one other Sanders doesn’t emerge, ever once more. (A distant chance, however… the precautionary precept.) Have the cries of “racism” already begun? Why sure, sure they’ve!

SC: “Biden and Sanders worlds are once more at loggerheads over South Carolina” [Politico]. ““Zero tolerance — ZERO for any disrespect or dismissal of Black voters,” Democratic Nationwide Committee Chairman JAIME HARRISON wrote on Twitter whereas retweeting an analogous critique. PATRICK DILLON, a Democratic strategist whose spouse, JEN O’MALLEY DILLON, is Biden’s deputy chief of employees, tweeted Shakir’s piece with this remark: ‘Needed to learn this twice simply to verify that it doesn’t point out Black voters even as soon as.’ Shakir, in our interview, was unmoved by his critics. ‘It’s a really insulting method to recommend that by some means we don’t care about Black voters as a result of we predict South Carolina shouldn’t go first. Come on. Get actual.’ He added that he’d help Georgia going first, mentioning that it’s extra numerous and has the next proportion of Black voters than South Carolina. He mentioned he would slightly see Nevada on the head of the pack however would like any of the opposite first 5 in Biden’s plan — which additionally consists of New Hampshire, Michigan, and Georgia — to go first over South Carolina.” Loads of Black voters in Michigan and Georgia. However Biden must repay Clyburn. ““And ensuring that the Democratic social gathering’s most loyal voters — Black voters — are on the entrance of the road and never in the back of the bus seems like one thing nobody ought to be arguing about.” • The Democrats aren’t placing Black voters “on the entrance of the road,” which they may do with Georgia, a swing state, simply as nicely. They’re placing Clyburn within the driver’s seat of the bus, and his reactionary and corrupt political machine within the driver’s seat for the forseeable future. It’s a payoff and a solution to cripple the left, to the extent there’s a left. So naturally the liberals get all huffy and begin preening.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, evidently individuals are truly studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “stay” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in reality, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not solely) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Talking of election denial:

pic.twitter.com/W2TCgXaZsr

— Defiant L’s (@DefiantLs) December 2, 2022

Realignment and Legitimacy

‘Tis a thriller!

The central thriller of Bankman-Fried’s political giving is whether or not the crypto government had an ulterior motive in backing congressional candidates.https://t.co/Rd7wgo40ty

— Los Angeles Instances (@latimes) December 6, 2022

“America’s Poll-Harvesting Capital Is in Suburban Philly” [RealClearPolitics]. “Many neighborhoods in Delaware County may be sparsely inhabited through the summer time, with trip locations of the Jersey Shore or Poconos only a brief automobile drive away. That didn’t matter to Delaware County’s Democratic organizers, who continued working right here. Delaware County’s Democratic candidates relentlessly knocked on doorways all through the summer time, carrying mail-in poll purposes for voters. The candidates’ volunteers and paid canvassers did the identical, understanding that 85% of those that apply will forged a poll. These votes have been within the financial institution earlier than Labor Day.” • Completely, 100% fallacious fallacious fallacious. What this prolonged article exhibits is that goal of early voting/vote by mail/poll harvesting is tribal loyalty, pure and easy. That is solely undemocratic (see right here and right here). Why don’t we simply neglect about ballots solely? Folks can simply put on the suitable T-shirt and we’ll rely them by drone or safety digital camera.

#COVID19

Lambert right here: Eric Topol has known as a winter surge (or “wave”) of Covid. I’m however a humble tapewatcher, however I’m reluctant to take action. (Partly as a result of I do know my temperament, and I’ve sturdy priors. So “I received’t as a result of all of me desires to,” as Sam Spade says.) Topol’s view is the institution view: Hospital-centric. Mine is infection-centric. I don’t see the acceleration or doubling in circumstances that I’d count on to see primarily based on previous surges. Granted, Boston (wastewater) and New York (hospitalization) are each accelerating, they’re good knowledge, they usually might be main indicators (which is why I selected them). They is also flashes within the pan. (Maybe I have to take a rigorous have a look at wastewater, as for instance in San Francisco (charts take without end to load).) So we’ll see. Let’s wait and see what the rest of the vacation season brings. Reader dialogue on this essential level is welcome. However–

Keep protected on the market: Excessive transmission (CDC), the elevation of positivity (Walgreens), the regular takeover of BQ.1* (CDC; Walgreens), together with elevated hospitalization in BQ.1* hotbed New York, plus a wastewater surge in Boston are all greater than a bit unsettling (as is the obvious proliferation of variants). As one would possibly count on at the start of a vacation surge, wastewater in Queens County, NY (JFK/LGA), Prepare dinner County, IL (ORD), and Los Angeles County (LAX) continues to be elevated. If you’re planning to journey on Xmas, do contemplate your plans fastidiously.

If, over the vacations, you intend to remain in a resort, from an HVAC engineer:

• Mastravaganza: “CDC encourages folks to put on masks to assist stop unfold of Covid, flu and RSV over the vacations” [CNBC]. Walenksy is so, so unhealthy:

“We additionally you to put on a high-quality, well-fitting masks to stop the unfold of respiratory diseases,” mentioned Walensky, including that folks dwelling in areas with excessive ranges of Covid transmission ought to particularly masking.

“Encourage.” “Think about.” That’s an actual profile in braveness. And the burden is all on “you,” the person. Certainly Walensky is aware of that workplaces will solely act primarily based on steerage? I like additionally that Walensky recommends monitoring transmission when CDC buries the transmission map. Bear in mind the girl who known as CDC to seek out it, and the good girl on the opposite finish of the road tried for half an hour and failed?

The CDC director mentioned the company is contemplating increasing its system of Covid group ranges to take into consideration different respiratory viruses such because the flu. The system is the premise for when CDC advises the general public to put on masks. However Walensky inspired folks to take proactive motion.

Expensive gawd. Walensky is doubling down on “group ranges” [bangs head on desk]. On the brilliant aspect, she waited till nicely after the midterms.

“” Walensky mentioned. “We might encourage all of these preventive measures — hand washing, staying residence if you’re sick, masking, elevated air flow — throughout respiratory virus season, however particularly in areas of excessive Covid-19 group ranges.”

A-a-a-n-d Walensky doubles down on the horrid “group ranges” metric as soon as extra. And “one needn’t.” Who does Walensky assume she is? The Queen of England?

• Anyhow, why would anyone consider Walensky about something?

• Mastravaganza: A maskless convention of immunologists:

You’ll by no means guess what occurred!

• Maskstravaganza: One other maskless convention, this time at WHO:

And talking of WHO:

• WHO nonetheless rejects airborne transmission of Covid:

The Hague for these folks. I’m not kidding. (Navarro’s bio: “Particular Envoy of @WHO DG on #COVID19, Co-Director of @Imperial_IGHI & Strategic Director of

@4SD_info – Expertise, Techniques & Synergies for Sustainable Growth.” Deeply, deeply embedded within the community of globalist NGOs, unsurprisingly.)

• “Examine Evaluating Surgical and N95 Masks Sparks Concern” [MedScape]. Here’s a politely phrased takedown of the examine from CIDRAP. From reminiscence: Conly is an Infectious Illness specialist (unhealthy) from Alberta (worse), a droplet goon (even worse), and is a gatekeeper at WHO in opposition to each masks and airborne transmission. He’s the dunce who saved yammering about the necessity to weigh the harms of masks in opposition to the advantages, and when pressed on the harms, got here up with… pimples. Versus vascular and neurological injury. The Hague for Conly too.

• A greater world is feasible:

• Inhaled Chinese language vaccines:

Be aware the label: Adenovirus.

Instances

Only for one other angle, I went again, briefly, to the case knowledge (which I do know critically underestimates precise circumstances by an order of magnitude, since folks take a look at at residence). Right here is the yearly knowledge:

And right here is the information for the final 4 weeks:

No matter the place the baseline is, I count on doubling habits in a surge, and I’m not seeing it right here. This knowledge seems like an extended, grinding slog. “A pandemic we are able to’t shake,” because it have been.

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission (the “crimson map”). (That is the map CDC desires solely hospitals to have a look at, not you.)

Lambert right here: The powers-that-be don’t even see transmission as an issue, clearly. However you would possibly!

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker, printed December 3:

2.3%. Yesterday was 4.1% (4.3%). A slight slackening.

Wastewater

Wastewater knowledge (CDC), December 1:

JFK/LGA, Queens County continues to be crimson; ORD, Prepare dinner County is orange; LAX, Los Angeles County is orange. I’d guess that speckling of crimson in Utah is sky nation. Keep protected when travelling.

November 28:

And MWRA knowledge, December 1:

Lambert right here: I hesitate to say “going vertical.” Seems vertical to me.

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant knowledge is. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, educational tempo completely incompatible with defending your self in opposition to a variant exhibiting doubling habits.

UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (Walgreens), November 19:

Lambert right here: BQ.1* dominating. XBB developing on the skin.

NOT UPDATED Variant knowledge, nationwide (CDC), November 12 (Nowcast off):

BQ.1* transferring alongside fairly briskly. Be aware the looks of XBB, and see the highlighted word: Like BQ.1*, XBB seems instantly when CDC decides to disaggregate the information. Precisely as with CDC’s notorious “inexperienced map,” a lag is launched, this time by CDC’s decision-making course of; Walgreens had XBB final week, however CDC has it solely this week. I don’t see what goal the aggregation serves. If the difficulty is a jillion low-circulation variants would make the desk impossibly lengthy and complicated for customers, that’s a UI/UX challenge; deal with it with software program. Have a slider/filter that aggregates variants beneath 1%, say. Permit scrolling the outcomes. No matter. However cease concealing knowledge!

New York/New Jersey (Area 2) numbers are larger. BQ.1.* is dominating:

• As a verify, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization, up to date December 3:

Lambert right here: I see improve, however not acceleration.

Deaths

Loss of life charge (Our World in Information):

Complete: 1,106,990 – 1,106,378 = 612 (612 * 365 = 223,380 deaths per yr, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). NOTE Not fairly honest, since I missed Monday.

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, each day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to every part else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Provide Chain: “United States LMI Logistics Managers Index Present” [Trading Economics]. “The Logistics Supervisor’s Index within the US fell for a second month to 53.6 in November 2022 from 57.5 in October. It’s the second lowest studying ever, solely surpassing 51.3 in April 2020 on the top of COVID-19 lockdowns. The slowdown in logistics progress was largely because of the long-anticipated wind down in Stock Ranges (54.8), prompted by the motion of products downstream in the direction of retailers and the sale of these items as vacation spending picks up.”

The Bezzle: “Uber Eats and Chicago Attain $10 Million Settlement Over Misleading Practices” [Eater]. “Within the settlement, the town contends that Uber ‘listed unaffiliated Retailers on its Platforms with out consent’ and ‘deceptively marketed that Eats Cross and Postmates Limitless subscribers would obtain ‘free supply’ or ‘$0 Supply Charges.’” • What, I believed Uber was alleged to be clear after Kalanick left?

Tech: A protracted thread on Google’s crapification:

Goodhart’s regulation: “Any noticed statistical regularity will are likely to collapse as soon as strain is positioned upon it for management functions,” or simplified: “each measure which turns into a goal turns into a nasty measure.” For instance, Google pagerank.

Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 61 Greed (earlier shut: 65 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Dec 6 at 1:54 PM EST.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Oil Provide/Worth. “Oil has declined to $80 per barrel” [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 186. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.)

E-book Nook

The writer:

His “radical flip”:

His e book:

Conspiracy Principle in America looks like a subject it will be helpful to have scholarly, and trendy, perspective on. Does anybody know the place I can discover a PDF? I’ve seemed, with out success.

“Panorama, Change, and the Lengthy Highway Forward” [Orion]. “Le Guin’s ‘The Left Hand of Darkness’ is a traditional for its portrayal of gender, however is it additionally typically, for the trendy reader, a local weather change parable?…. Local weather disaster is about extremes, and in The Left Hand of Darkness cultures are formed by an immeasurably hostile bodily setting. The coldness of the place, which forces adaptation to its circumstances and discourages sure sorts of danger. The actual fact the nations of Winter don’t have interaction in conflict constitutes one distinctive manifestation of this adaptation to an excessive setting. Full-scale battle, versus minor sorties, skirmishes, particular person feuds, merely appears alien to the nations of Winter. …. Right here on Earth, we’re blessed, or have been blessed, with dwelling on a planet with a spread of climates, lots of which have been gentle or pretty straightforward to adapt to. This isn’t to say that there haven’t been horrible durations of famine and privation even earlier than the local weather disaster, however we’ve additionally been allowed the posh of a spread of acts of the creativeness not out there to the planet Winter. Now we have, for instance, in really horrible methods, been allowed the “luxurious” of conflict. Even when restoration from this luxurious has assorted relying on circumstances of assets and panorama as nicely.” • I’m unsure I agree with this studying. But it surely’s a delicate studying nonetheless.

The Gallery

“Pitiless misogynist?” [Times Literary Supplement (AL)]. “[Lucien Freud’s] biographer William Feaver says that Freud’s portrait of the Queen, on present right here, “wasn’t so completely different from the 1952 head of Francis Bacon”. Each are small. Each are painted near. Bacon and Freud sat with their knees virtually touching – not the case with Her Majesty. Each required many sittings. The royal portrait took a yr, the Bacon two or three months. The Queen was captured on canvas, Bacon on a copper plate. And there’s something copperplate in regards to the Bacon portrait – meticulous, managed, uniform, classical, a superb train in Ingres element and end. A part of the portrait’s energy is the way in which it fills the area precisely, so the impression of mass is created, although the portray is small, cognate, you would possibly say, with an Elizabethan miniature, a Nicholas Hilliard or an Isaac Oliver. The end is quasi-enamel. It resists revealing its course of. The portrait of the Queen is all course of and brushstrokes. You see the Queen and also you see the painter at work. The Bacon was painted in 1952, the Queen in 2001. In some unspecified time in the future within the center Fifties, beneath the affect of Bacon – whose portrait heads are wipes, approximate, assured swipes, gestural and kinetic, heads in movement – Freud modified his brushes from effective sable to coarse hog’s hair Filbert brushes. Which is why the 2 portraits are completely completely different from one another. Feaver stories that when Richard Hamilton informed Freud that his portray was now not tenable – “You may’t work in your fashion these days” – Freud replied that it was ‘the one manner he might work’. Which means realism.”

Freud (1):

Freud (2):

Bacon:

Bacon’s work all the time remind me of…. bacon (solely visually). Am I the one one?

Class Warfare

“Lengthy Social Distancing” [NBER]. “Greater than ten p.c of People with current work expertise say they are going to proceed social distancing after the COVID-19 pandemic ends, and one other 45 p.c will accomplish that in restricted methods. We uncover this Lengthy Social Distancing phenomenon in our month-to-month Survey of Working Preparations and Attitudes. It’s extra frequent amongst older individuals, girls, the much less educated, those that earn much less, and in occupations and industries that require many face-to-face encounters. Individuals who intend to proceed social distancing have decrease labor pressure participation – unconditionally, and conditional on demographics and different controls…. Financial reasoning and proof recommend that Lengthy Social Distancing and its results will persist for a lot of months or years.” • That’s an amazingly excessive variety of smart folks, given the depth of the propaganda and the forces arrayed in opposition to them. Possibly the Fed must crack the whip more durable?

Silicon Valley’s labor aristocrats have been using for a fall:

Seems that as an alternative of scarfing down the free lunches and massages + preventing about idpol, they need to have been organizing unions. Ah nicely, nonetheless.

Information of the Wired

Information you need to use (besides within the snowbound areas of the nation, in fact):

Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are effective! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From wol:

wol writes: “Marsh grass, Bald Head Island, NC.”

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