The Russia-Ukraine conflict, European monetary integration, and crises

Date:


Philipp Hartmann, Philippe Molitor, Annachiara Tanzarella, Bruun de Jong 29 July 2022

Editors’ observe: This column is a part of the Vox debate on the financial penalties of conflict.

The European Financial and Financial Union (EMU) has weathered a number of extreme crises, notably over the last one and a half many years. The crises normally went hand in hand with reductions of monetary integration, also known as monetary fragmentation (see Adam et al. 2002, Baele et al. 2004, ECB 2007 and follow-up stories, European Parliament 2016, FSB 2019, and Claessens 2019 for broad discussions of monetary integration/fragmentation and related literature). This may be seen in Determine 1, which exhibits two mixture indicators of monetary integration – one based mostly on cross-border value differentials in key monetary markets (price-based composite indicator, the blue line) and one other based mostly on cross-border asset holdings (quantity-based composite indicator, the yellow line). For instance, the Nice Monetary Disaster and the European sovereign debt crises collectively introduced measured monetary integration right down to ranges just like the occasions of the euro’s introduction. The explanations for these centrifugal forces are multifaceted, however two notably vital and interrelated ones are that EMU has been constructed bottom-up from single sovereign nations the place the unification of financial coverage was not accompanied by a commensurate fiscal union. As member nations have differing fiscal and financial strengths, they don’t have the identical capacity to stabilise throughout crises. 

Determine 1 Low-frequency price-based and quantity-based composite indicators of euro space monetary integration

(quarterly knowledge, price-based indicator: Q1 1995 – Q1 2022, quantity-based indicator: Q1 1999 – Q1 2022)

Sources: ECB and ECB calculations
Notes: The worth-based composite indicator aggregates ten indicators for cash, bond, fairness and retail banking markets, measuring cross-border asset value or yield convergence, whereas the quantity-based composite indicator aggregates 5 indicators for a similar market segments (besides retail banking), measuring cross-border asset holdings. The quarterly values of the price-based composite indicator are computed as the typical of the month-to-month values of the respective quarter whereas the values of the quantity-based composite indicator check with the top of the respective quarter. The symptoms are bounded between zero (full fragmentation) and one (full integration). Will increase within the indicators sign higher monetary integration, i.e. higher cross-border asset value or yield convergence and higher cross-border asset funding inside the euro space, respectively. From January 2018 onwards the behaviour of the price-based indicator might have modified because of the transition from EONIA to €STR rates of interest within the cash market element. Detailed descriptions of each indicators and their enter knowledge are within the Statistical Net Annex of ECB (2022) and Hoffmann et al. (2019). OMT stands for Outright Financial Transactions. 

As a consequence of every disaster, new institutional preparations and coverage instruments have been launched within the fiscal, financial, prudential, and structural coverage areas (see Hartmann and Smets 2018, Rancoita et al. 2020, Tordoir et al. 2020, Afman et al. 2021, Buti 2021, Freier et al. 2022, ECB 2022b, 2022c, in addition to ESRB 2022 for broad overviews). They implied steps in the direction of the completion of EMU and monetary integration recovered, although extra in costs than in portions (see the right-hand facet of Determine 1). When the COVID-19 disaster hit (penultimate purple vertical line to the fitting), a pointy re-fragmentation set in once more. However it turned out to be much less extreme and extra short-lived than the earlier episodes, notably as highly effective improvements in coverage have been made once more (e.g. Hartmann et al. 2021, ECB 2022a). 

A ‘medical’ evaluation of euro space monetary integration in the course of the early part of the Ukraine conflict

From the intense proper of Determine 1, the influence of the Ukraine disaster on euro space monetary integration seems comparatively contained as nicely (with quarterly knowledge). Determine 2 gives an in depth image of euro space monetary integration developments with each day knowledge (blue line) and related occasions (vertical strains with capital letters) in the course of the first three months of the conflict. (This high-frequency indicator is barely obtainable for value knowledge.) 

Determine 2 Excessive-frequency price-based composite indicator of euro space monetary integration and related occasions in the course of the Ukraine disaster

(each day knowledge, 10 January 2022 – 23 Might 2022)

Sources: ECB and ECB calculations
Notes: The high-frequency price-based composite indicator of monetary integration is a variant of the low-frequency price-based indicator developed by Hoffmann et al. (2019), as proven in Determine 1, at each day frequency relatively than month-to-month or quarterly frequency. Whereas masking the identical market segments its concentrate on high-frequency knowledge implies that it could actually incorporate solely a decrease variety of indicators general. Its building is described in Kochanska, Mulder and Zito (2020). Black vertical strains with capital letters mark chosen related occasions:
A. U.S. and Russia accuse one another at U.N. Safety Council assembly of stoking Ukraine disaster (31 January 2022); B. Russia and Belarus begin massive navy drills near the Ukrainian border (10 February 2022); C. Russian navy broadcasts pulling again some troops near Ukraine (15 February 2022), D. Preventing escalates in separatist areas of jap Ukraine (17 February 2022); E. U.S. President Biden and Secretary of State warn that Russia could also be on the brink of invading Ukraine (17 February 2022); F. Russian invasion of Ukraine and settlement of EU leaders on a second sanctions package deal in opposition to Russia (24 February 2022); G. European nations (third package deal) and U.S. agree on additional sanctions, together with exclusion of some Russian banks from SWIFT and blocking the Russian central financial institution from entry to its overseas reserves (26 February 2022); H. European Union stated to think about joint bond gross sales to finance increased vitality and defence spending rising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in addition to US and UK ban on Russian oil imports (8 March 2022); I. ECB accelerates discount in web asset purchases in opposition to the background of continued excessive inflation and Ukraine not any longer urgent for NATO membership in addition to signalling openness to neutrality with safety ensures (10 March 2022); J. Russia and Ukraine trace at progress in peace negotiations (16 March 2022); Okay. EU leaders announce that they may collectively purchase gasoline, liquefied pure gasoline and hydrogen this yr (21 March 2022); L. President Putin’s decree demanding overseas consumers to pay for Russian gasoline in roubles or have their provides lower (1 April 2022); M. Euro space financial sentiment reaches an sudden one-year low, German Finance Minister opens as much as an oil embargo in opposition to Russia and euro space sovereign yields/spreads edge up within the run-up of US Fed and Financial institution of England financial coverage conferences (2 Might 2022); N. Following a Financial institution of England fee enhance and announcement to start out (as the primary main central financial institution) actively promoting company bonds in September, following a number of ECB Governing Council Members’ feedback on the ECB’s future path of charges and following sizeable falls in German industrial manufacturing and manufacturing unit orders, the Italian sovereign unfold and company credit score danger in Europe attain two-year highs (5 Might 2022).

First, the time at which integration started to be affected might be dated to end-January 2022, when a stand-off between Russia and the US occurred within the United Nations safety council as as to whether Russia deliberate to assault Ukraine (occasion A in Determine 2), or on the primary day of the invasion when EU leaders additionally agreed on a second package deal of sanctions in opposition to Russia (24 February 2022; occasion F). Second, proper after the invasion and the primary sanctions the price-based indicator alerts sharp fragmentation, though not notably massive in comparison with the earlier episodes proven in Determine 1. Third, after a sequence of reports a few comparatively united European response to the disaster and about indicators of a moderation of the battle (occasions H, I, J, and Okay in Determine 2), greater than half of the preliminary fragmentation reversed (see additionally De Guindos 2022). Fourth, this re-integration development stopped with President Putin’s decree requiring overseas consumers to pay for Russian gasoline in roubles (occasion L; see additionally Zagrandi et al. 2022). After that (till the top of our knowledge interval on 23 Might 2022), measured monetary integration throughout euro space nations hovered under the pre-crisis stage however above the trough in the course of the days following the invasion.

It’s attention-grabbing to see that occasions pointing to a worsening of the battle (public arguments of politicians, navy escalations or sanctions/retaliation; e.g. occasions A, B, D, E, F, G, H, L and M) appear to drive the euro space integration indicator down, whereas moderation of the battle (peace talks, softening of negotiation positions or navy de-escalation; e.g. occasions C, I and J) and unified European approaches to take care of the financial penalties (potential joint debt issuance or joint vitality purchases; occasions H and Okay) appear to drive it up once more. 

Determine 3 Excessive-frequency comparability of price-based monetary fragmentation within the euro space earlier than and after the start of the Ukraine and COVID crises

(each day knowledge, brown stable line: 13 January – 25 April 2022, brown dashed line: 20 December 2021 – 28 March 2022, blue line: 10 January – 21 April 2020)

Sources: ECB and ECB calculations
Notes: The high-frequency price-based composite indicator is described within the notes to Determine 2. On the horizontal axis 0 is the day of the start of the disaster, with detrimental numbers indicating days earlier than and optimistic numbers days after it. The start of the COVID disaster is dated 21 February 2020 (blue line). For the Ukraine disaster two various beginning dates are displayed, 31 January 2022 (dashed brown line) and 24 February 2022 (stable brown line). 

Determine 3 compares the preliminary fragmentation in the beginning of the COVID disaster with the preliminary fragmentation in the beginning of the Ukraine disaster. No matter whether or not one dates the latter to the time of the escalation within the ‘confrontation’ or the time of the efficient invasion, its monetary integration implications for the euro space remained clearly extra contained than for the COVID disaster. In sum, whereas one must be cautious that the Nice Monetary Disaster, the European sovereign debt disaster, the COVID disaster, and now the Ukraine disaster are of very completely different nature and magnitude, our integration measures counsel that the reforms making steps in the direction of EMU completion and the adoption of recent coverage instruments by numerous authorities have been growing resilience of euro space monetary integration over time. 

An exploratory evaluation of additional components accounting for monetary fragmentation in the course of the Ukraine disaster

Cross-country asset value or yield differentials, as captured within the earlier three figures (numerous blue and brown strains for the price-based indicators), will be defined by variations within the financial fundamentals that affect the valuation of belongings, variations in market expectations concerning the future growth of fundamentals and related danger premiums or non-fundamental market dynamics/mispricing (e.g. from the dissemination of inaccurate data, herding behaviour, self-fulfilling expectations, market panics or illiquidity). The next figures illustrate among the components that appear to have pushed the divergence of asset costs throughout euro space nations in the course of the first three months of the Ukraine disaster. All relate to asset costs included in or affecting the price-based indicator of monetary integration displayed in Figures 1, 2 and three. 

One of many main components how the Ukraine conflict influences different nations is thru vitality imports (e.g. Verwey et al. 2022). Notably European nations import lots of gasoline and oil from Russia, albeit to differing levels. When Russia restricted deliveries in response to sanctions, costs skyrocketed. This accelerated inflation, constrained progress, and triggered fiscal expenditures to comprise the influence on companies and households in euro space nations. Nations with increased vitality dependence on Russia have been affected greater than nations who use different vitality sources. 

Determine 4 illustrates whether or not differing vitality imports from Russia have been mirrored in euro space nations’ sovereign spreads throughout the primary monetary fragmentation interval initially of the conflict (23 February to 1 March 2022; recall the sharp decline in Determine 2 throughout this era). Two channels by way of which this might be the case is thru increased public expenditures (as talked about above) and decrease tax revenues from decrease progress, each of which might enhance fiscal deficits and thereby are inclined to decrease the creditworthiness of nations. 

There appears to be one group of nations with low vitality publicity to Russia (blue dots in Determine 4) for which no clear relationship is seen. However for the most-exposed nations (above a stage of 1% of whole non-euro space imports; purple dots), higher dependence tended to suggest a higher enhance of their sovereign unfold in opposition to Germany (additionally illustrated by a dotted purple regression-fitted line for these nations). Apparently, within the subsequent interval of re-integration (see the rise of the price-based integration indicator in Determine 2 from occasion H to occasion L) the connection flips signal, which means that the extremely uncovered nations benefited from bigger unfold declines in comparison with the less-exposed nations (not proven in Determine 4). (Comparable relationships maintain for sovereign yields relatively than spreads, the place Germany is within the blue group of nations.) Clearly, given the low variety of observations, all these correlations must be interpreted cautiously.

Determine 4 Euro space nations’ vitality dependence from Russia and their sovereign spreads in the course of the preliminary fragmentation interval in the beginning of the Ukraine conflict

(vertical axis: change between 23 February and 1 March 2022 in foundation factors; horizontal axis: 2021)

Sources: Refinitiv, Eurostat and ECB calculations
Notes: Sovereign spreads are for 10-year authorities bond yields relative to Germany. Nations with vitality publicity to Russia under 1 per cent are marked in blue and nations above 1 per cent in purple. Dotted strains are fitted with easy bivariate regressions together with an intercept. The black dotted line incorporates all 15 euro space nations for which dependable knowledge have been obtainable (blue and purple dots). The purple dotted line solely incorporates the nations with the biggest vitality exposures to Russia. Nation abbreviations are as follows: AT=Austria; BE=Belgium; CY=Cyprus; ES=Spain; GR=Greece; FI=Finland; FR=France; IE=Eire; IT=Italy; LT=Lithuania; MT=Malta; NL=Netherlands; PT=Portugal; SI=Slovenia; SK=Slovakia.

One would count on that additionally euro space corporations or company sectors can be affected in differential methods, relying on their relative reliance on oil and gasoline. Totally different industrial buildings – with some nations having a higher share of energy-dependent sectors than others – may then suggest the divergence of fairness or company bond markets throughout inner euro space borders. Determine 5 shows the evolution of euro space inventory market indices for 2 notably energy- or oil-dependent company sectors – transport (gray line) and chemical substances (violet line) – in comparison with a basic market index (dashed black line). As one would count on, the transport index underperforms relative to the general market in the course of the preliminary fragmentation interval (23 February to 1 March 2022; mild orange shaded space) and overperforms relative to the market in the course of the non permanent re-integration interval (7 March to 1 April 2022; mild inexperienced shaded space). However the chemical substances sector index behaves hardly completely different from the general market index, besides maybe for the final week of the re-integration interval. Even for the transport index, deviations from the overall market index don’t appear to be persistently massive. 

Extra typically, with the information obtainable to us we couldn’t discover systematic outcomes for the connection between fairness market returns and vitality dependence, neither in cross-country correlations, nor in cross-sector correlations. Three concerns may clarify this considerably stunning end result. First, inventory market indices for company sectors will not be sufficiently granular, typically mixing corporations with excessive and low vitality or oil consumption. Second, some energy-intensive corporations or sectors might profit from market buildings by which they’ve pricing energy. This market energy would enable corporations to move the upper enter prices on to their clients with out diminished earnings materialising of their fairness market valuations. Third, the overall macroeconomic implications of the Ukraine disaster for the euro space (decrease progress and better inflation) might dominate sector-specific implications, in order that fairness buyers don’t discriminate as a lot between sectors as one might need anticipated. In step with these concerns, if one decomposes the price-based composite indicator of monetary integration in Determine 2 into its market parts (not proven within the figures of this column), then its modifications in the course of the Ukraine disaster are notably pushed by bond markets and solely to a restricted extent by fairness markets.

Determine 5 Euro space inventory market indices in the course of the starting of the Ukraine conflict

(vertical axis: all indices normalised to 100 on 23 February 2022 and sector indices re-normalised to the extent of the general market index on 7 March 2022; horizontal axis: each day knowledge from 22 February to 1 April 2022)

Sources: Bloomberg and ECB calculations 
Notes: Total market index is the Morgan Stanley Capital Worldwide (MSCI) Europe Index. Transport sector index is the MSCI Europe Transportation Index. Chemical substances sector index is the STOXX Europe Chemical substances Index.

Allow us to now flip from vitality to monetary exposures. Determine 6, which is constructed in an analogous method as Determine 4, illustrates whether or not euro space banks’ exposures to Russia and Ukraine have been mirrored of their bond yields. Right here we don’t have a look at the fragmentation interval in the course of the first days of the conflict however on the non permanent re-integration interval (7 March to 1 April 2022). Subsequently, the speculation reverses: as some indicators of a leisure of the battle emerge and as European nations reply in a unified method, do the banks with the biggest exposures to Russia and Ukraine expertise a higher discount of their bond yields in comparison with much less uncovered banks, as danger premiums decline? 

The primary remark from Determine 6 is that euro space banks’ direct exposures are general fairly low (see additionally ECB 2022d). Whereas with restricted country-level knowledge the connection is unavoidably weak and the correlations need to be interpreted with warning, the purple dotted line is broadly per the speculation. Notice that a number of nations (dots) needed to be faraway from the determine for confidentiality causes, however their knowledge are included within the regression-fitted strains. Furthermore, the corresponding determine for the fragmentation interval exhibits related outcomes (not displayed in Determine 6), simply with optimistic slopes of the fitted strains (as one would count on and in addition in keeping with Determine 4). 

Determine 6 Euro space nations’ financial institution exposures to Russia and Ukraine and their bond yields in the course of the non permanent re-integration interval in the course of the Ukraine conflict

(vertical axis: change between 7 March and 1 April 2022 in foundation factors; horizontal axis: This autumn 2021)

Sources: Bloomberg, ECB and ECB calculations
Notes: Financial institution exposures are to households, non-financial companies and authorities establishments, masking money deposits, debt, loans, securities and derivatives holdings. Nations with financial institution exposures under 0.25% are marked in blue and nations above this worth in purple. Dotted strains are fitted with easy bivariate regressions together with an intercept. The black dotted regression-line incorporates all 11 euro space nations for which dependable knowledge have been obtainable (blue and purple dots). The purple dotted line solely incorporates the nations with the biggest financial institution exposures to Russia and Ukraine. The dots of three nations needed to be suppressed for knowledge confidentiality causes however their knowledge are included within the regression-fitted strains. Irish knowledge have been a big outlier and subsequently excluded from this determine. Nation abbreviations: DE=Germany; LU=Luxemburg; relaxation see notes to Determine 4.

In sum, the proof to date means that the course of fragmentation and re-integration developments in the course of the early months of the battle appear to be broadly in keeping with the instructions one would count on from some basic components. However we can not infer from this easy evaluation that non-fundamental market dynamics or procyclical danger premiums haven’t performed any position.

Allow us to conclude with a have a look at components which will disturb the accuracy of pricing belongings throughout euro space nations. Within the the rest of this column, we concentrate on financial uncertainty (see additionally Anayi et al. 2022 on the uncertainty results of the Ukraine disaster). If uncertainty concerning the financial outlook of a rustic will increase (declines), danger premiums will be anticipated to rise (decline) and monetary market expectations might turn out to be extra (much less) liable to herding or extra (much less) susceptible to self-fulfilling equilibriums.

Determine 7 Uncertainty about euro space nations’ outlook and their sovereign yields in the course of the starting of the Ukraine conflict

(vertical axis: change from February to March 2022 in foundation factors; horizontal axis: change from March to April 2022 in proportion factors)

Sources: Refinitiv, European Fee and ECB calculations
Notes: Adjustments in financial uncertainty are measured with month-to-month variations of the Financial Uncertainty Indicator of the European Fee (2022a, part 3.6.8). This indicator is derived from surveys of customers and firm managers (within the business, providers, building and retail commerce sectors). Respondents are requested in the course of the first three weeks of a month how troublesome they discover it to foretell their future monetary scenario (for households/customers) or their future enterprise scenario (for corporations/managers). They’ll select one among 5 doable solutions: simple to foretell, reasonably simple to foretell, reasonably troublesome to foretell, troublesome to foretell or don’t know. A month-to-month worth of the indicator is the combination share of respondents that reply troublesome to foretell or reasonably troublesome to foretell. Sovereign yields are for 10-year authorities bonds. To match them with the timing of the Fee survey discipline work, modifications are calculated because the distinction between the typical each day yield stage in the course of the first three weeks of a month. Dotted strains are fitted with easy bivariate regressions together with an intercept. The inexperienced dotted line, masking modifications from February (earlier than the conflict) to March, incorporates all 16 euro space nations for which dependable knowledge have been obtainable (inexperienced dots). The sunshine blue dotted line, masking modifications from March to April, incorporates 15 euro space nations, as Greece needed to be excluded as an excessive outlier. Nation abbreviations are the identical as in Figures 4 and 5. The indicators of the correlations mirrored within the dotted strains don’t change when Malta is faraway from the February-March interval or Slovakia from the March-April interval.

Determine 7 exhibits how euro space nations’ sovereign yields have been correlated with modifications in uncertainty, as measured with the European Fee’s broad survey-based Financial Uncertainty Indicator (EUI; see European Fee 2022a), in the course of the first months of the conflict. This indicator combines survey solutions of customers and firm managers in numerous EU nations about how troublesome they discover it to foretell their future monetary or enterprise scenario.

Growing uncertainty concerning the financial and monetary outlook appears to be related to increased sovereign yields (inexperienced dots and inexperienced dotted regression-fitted line for modifications from February – earlier than the conflict – to March) and declining uncertainty with decrease sovereign yields (mild blue dots and light-weight blue fitted line for modifications from March to April). The identical relationship is discovered for uncertainty and sovereign spreads relative to Germany (not reported in Determine 7). 

In different phrases, whereas additional analysis is required on the relative steadiness between basic and non-fundamental components in driving the monetary integration developments in the course of the Ukraine disaster, it appears possible that in an surroundings of adjusting financial uncertainty each parts can have performed a job.

Authors’ observe: All views expressed are these of the authors and shouldn’t be considered the views of the ECB or the Eurosystem.

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