Reminder: Utilizing the “Two-Consecutive-Quarter Rule” There Is No 2001 Recession

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At the least as of now. However at finish 2003, there was. However not as of January 2002.

Determine 1: GDP as of 1/30/2002 (blue), as of 12/10/2003 (tan), as of 10/27/2022 (inexperienced), in Ch.2012$ in logs, 2001Q1=0. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BEA by way of ALFRED, BEA, NBER, and creator’s calculations. 

Word that ECRI dates and NBER dates are the identical for this peak-to-trough episode.

Primarily based on GDP, Jim Hamilton notes that by the Chauvet-Hamilton measure, as of 2022Q2, the US economic system was not in recession. One commentator slavishly hews to the two quarter rule, based mostly on the present statistics.

See additionally [1], [2].



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