Christiane Baumeister shared this snapshot as of the week ending on Oct 29, 2022 in comparison with the identical week one yr in the past, measured in development charges relative to long-run nationwide common development, as measured by the Buameister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly financial circumstances index.
This index is described on this put up and has been cited in quite a few posts on this weblog.
What are the prospects for recession on the state stage, primarily based upon the index?
Therefore, whereas there’s not at present a excessive actual time chance of recession aggregated up from the state stage, the 52 week forward forecast is for rising chance.
Listed below are the newest readings as of at the moment.
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for US plus 2% development (inexperienced). Lilac shading denotes a hypothetical 2022H1 recession. Supply: NY Fed through FRED, OECD, WECI, and writer’s calculations.