Month-on-Month Inflation Appears to Have Peaked

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That’s the message from PCE deflators as we speak.

Determine 1: Month-on-month inflation annualized, for CPI (daring blue), core CPI (tan), PCE deflator (daring sky blue), and core PCE deflator (mild inexperienced). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, BEA through FRED, NBER, and writer’s calculations.

And the quarter-on-quarter foundation, the deceleration appears obvious, besides maybe for core CPI.

Determine 2: Quarter-on-quarter inflation annualized, for CPI (daring blue), core CPI (tan), PCE deflator (daring sky blue), and core PCE deflator (mild inexperienced). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, BEA through FRED, NBER, and writer’s calculations.

Whereas year-ahead Michigan family expectations of inflation are up slight in November (5.1% prel vs 5% in October), they’re nonetheless down vs. March-April 2022 (5.4%).



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