Weekly indicators from Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Indicators, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI, by way of 12/3; and Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker by way of 11/26.
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory (NY Fed) Weekly Financial Index (blue), Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for US plus 2% development (inexperienced). Supply: NY Fed through FRED, OECD, WECI, all accessed 12/8, and creator’s calculations.
The deceleration has been fairly constant over time, and throughout indicators. The OECD Weekly Tracker, which exhibits a marked decline, is barely accessible by way of 11/26. This collection — primarily based upon a giant information strategy — exhibits substantial variation over time, in my expertise. Helpfully, they supply a 95% excessive/low numbers. In Determine 2, I plot this for the most recent classic, together with choose earlier vintages.
Determine 2: Woloszko (OECD) Weekly Tracker by way of 11/26 (tan), excessive/low (gentle tan), by way of 11/12 (inexperienced), by way of 10/15 (pink), by way of 8/20 (darkish blue), all year-on-year, %. Supply: OECD, varied releases.
Given these information, I’d need to wait earlier than claiming damaging y/y progress. Nonetheless, what is obvious is the US economic system’s progress fee is decelerating on a year-on-year foundation.