GDP Nowcasts as of 12/10: Progress in This autumn

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Now we have This autumn nowcasts and monitoring estimates as of 12/9, and implied This autumn from Lewis-Mertens-Inventory WEI.

Determine 1: GDP (black), GDPNow (sky blue), GS (pink), WEI implied (orange), Survey of Skilled Forecasters (blue), in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. WEI makes use of common of y/y progress by means of 12/3 utilized to 2021Q4 GDP. Supply: BEA 2nd launch, Atlanta Fed, Goldman Sachs, NY Fed through FRED, Philadelphia Fed, and writer’s calculations.

This autumn Nowcasts vary from 0.72% q/q SAAR (St. Louis Fed) to 1.32% (Atlanta Fed GDPNow).

Determine 1 locations into context what the Lewis-Mertens-Inventory WEI (by means of the primary two months of This autumn) implies for the extent of GDP: 1.83% enhance on 2021Q4 GDP. Continued deceleration (as mentioned on this publish) would place This autumn decrease.



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