But Extra on Adjusting the CES, Personal Nonfarm Payroll

Date:


not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted personal employment from CES vs. QCEW and ADP.

unadjusted knowledge, CES knowledge is 637 thousand above QCEW for June 2022; and is 837 thousand above ADP for November 2022.

Determine 1: Change in personal nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and personal QCEW coated employment in US (crimson), and ADP personal nonfarm payroll employment (inexperienced), all not seasonally adjusted, all in 000’s, relative to 2022M03=0. Supply: BLS, BLS and ADP by way of FRED and athor’s calculations.

In share phrases, the gaps are fairly small; the CES collection is 0.6 ppts above QCEW in June, and 0.5 ppts in November.

Determine 2: Personal nonfarm payroll employment (blue), personal QCEW coated employment in US (crimson), and ADP personal nonfarm payroll employment not seasonally adjusted, all in logs, 2022M03=0. Supply: BLS, BLS and ADP by way of FRED, and athor’s calculations.

Lastly, for seasonally adjusted knowledge, now we have the next image:

Determine 3: Change in personal nonfarm payroll employment (blue), and personal QCEW coated employment in US (crimson), and ADP personal nonfarm payroll employment, all in 000’s, relative to 2022M03=0. QCEW adjusted by creator utilizing log transformation, Census transformation X-13 and X-11 seasonal adjustment. Supply: BLS, BLS and ADP by way of FREDand athor’s calculations.

As of June, the CES collection is 433 thousand beneath the QCEW collection, whereas the CES collection is above the ADP collection by 297 thousand in November 2022. Admittedly, nevertheless, the QCEW determine is delicate to how seasonal adjustment is utilized (Census X13/seasonal adjustment X-11 vs. shifting geometric common).

 

 



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