In Covid within the nursing properties: the US expertise, Markus Bjoerkheim and I present that the Nice Barrington “centered safety” plan was unlikely to have labored. I lined this final week. However there was one technique which might have saved tens of 1000’s of lives–early vaccination. If the vaccine trials had been accomplished simply 5 weeks earlier, for instance, we might have saved 14 thousand lives within the nursing properties alone. However put apart the potential of finishing the trials earlier. There was one other sensible chance underneath our noses. We had might have provided nursing house residents the vaccine on a compassionate use foundation, i.e. even earlier than all of the medical trials had been accomplished. An early vaccination choice was neither unprecedented nor a query of 20-20 hindsight, early vaccination was mentioned on the time:
Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White Home Coronavirus Process Drive, forcefully advocated that nursing house residents needs to be given the choice of being vaccinated earlier underneath a compassionate use authorization (Borrell, 2022). Many different remedies, equivalent to convalescent plasma, had been licensed underneath compassionate use procedures and there was greater than sufficient vaccine out there to vaccinate all nursing house residents. As a primary approximation we discover the Birx plan would have prevented within the order of 200,000 nursing house instances and 40,000 nursing house deaths. To place that in perspective, it quantities to decreasing total nursing house Covid deaths by over 26 per cent (utilizing all CMS reported resident nursing house deaths as of 5 December 2021, and estimates of underreported deaths from Shen et al. (2021)).
The lesson just isn’t primarily concerning the previous. It’s concerning the central significance of vaccines in any plan to guard the weak and about how we needs to be bolder and braver the following time.
Addendum: See additionally Tyler’s large publish (additional beneath) on centered safety.
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