Utilizing flash estimates for Euro Space HICP. US inflation m/m , q/q falling:
Determine 1: US m/m annualized CPI headline (black), HICP headline (grey), Euro space (teal). Euro space July is flash estimate. HICP seasonally adjusted utilizing X-13, log transformation. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, EuroStat, through FRED, and writer’s calculations.
That is true utilizing 3 month adjustments within the month-to-month information, as properly.
Determine 2: US q/q annualized CPI headline (black), HICP headline (grey), Euro space (teal). Euro space July is flash estimate. HICP seasonally adjusted utilizing X-13, log transformation. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, EuroStat, through FRED, and writer’s calculations.
Right here’s the month-on-month annualized differential between US CPI and EA HICP.
Determine 3: US_Euro space m/m annualized headline differential (black). Euro space July is flash estimate. HICP seasonally adjusted utilizing X-13, log transformation. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, EuroStat, through FRED, and writer’s calculations.
Whereas headline charges have converged, core differentials would present a distinct story. Vitality is an even bigger element of headline within the Euro space. Count on this divergence to proceed so long as power (notably pure fuel) costs stay elevated relative to the US.
