2:00PM Water Cooler 11/11/2022 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Affected person readers, the Politics part isn’t almost as sturdy because it might be, however I’ve issues to take care of, and so must present a heaping providing on Monday. –lambert

Fowl Tune of the Day

Vinaceous Dove, Gambela Peoples, Ethiopia. “Tune from a fowl sitting at mid-height in a tall tree in a clearing surrounded by disturbed dry forest.”

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to assume; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“Biden touts ‘unprecedented’ U.S. actions at Egypt local weather summit” [Politico]. “These embrace his signing of the US’ biggest-ever local weather invoice, a $100 million contribution to a worldwide local weather fund and new efforts introduced Friday to cut back planet-warming air pollution from the oil and gasoline trade. And, he famous, he rejoined the 2015 Paris local weather settlement that former President Donald Trump had deserted — “I apologize we ever pulled out of the settlement,” he stated. The raft of formidable local weather actions is “going to shift the paradigm for the US and your entire world,” Biden stated. He added: “We’re proving local weather coverage is an effective financial coverage.” Regardless of these phrases, the U.S. has confronted continued grumbling all through this week’s convention about Washington’s stinginess in offering the tons of of billions of {dollars} in local weather assist that representatives of creating nations are demanding…. Different potential temper spoilers for Biden’s look embrace meals and water shortages which have left convention attendees cranky, human rights and privateness violations by the Egyptian authorities, and contemporary scientific proof that each one this local weather diplomacy is failing to forestall catastrophic rises in temperatures.” • 100 million? Actually? Biden checking for free change within the White Home couches?

2022

The Senate

The Home:

Raining on the parade:

Look I am as glad as anybody concerning the final result as anybody however the GOP gained 52% of the favored vote. The Dems must replicate on why nearly all of voters did not like our agenda. https://t.co/ssbINaHUJg

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) November 11, 2022

I assume successful the election whereas shedding the favored vote is simply unhealthy when Republicans do it. Unsurprisingly.

* * *

NY: “Thursday’s Outcomes Are In: New York Democrats Like to Lose” [Hellgate]. “Simply 48 hours after a tense Election Day, it’s turning into clear that New York Democrats bungled each their probabilities of retaining the U.S. Home of Representatives, and their very own supermajorities within the state legislature. Democrat Max Rose would have gained his problem in opposition to Republican Nicole Malliotakis in Staten Island and South Brooklyn, had state Democrats not fucked up the possibilities to implement the redistricting maps they drew. As an alternative, they bought grasping and their maps have been weak to a lawsuit funded by a Lengthy Island billionaire who didn’t need an offshore wind farm close to his property. (‘I simply maintain considering of the outdated adage: ,’ a Democratic strategist informed Politico. ‘There was a means to attract these traces to make extra Democratic seats and face up to a authorized problem. By overshooting, we’re now going to lose two or three extra seats than we have to.’)” • That’s adage! Although apparently it doesn’t apply to Lengthy Island squillionaires.

PA: “Massive John Fetterman Can Save the Democratic Celebration — if the Democrats Let Him” (interview) [Rolling Stone]. Oh gawd, the headline. Let the hagiography start. Can we, simply this one time, separate techniques and technique from the individual using them? Price a learn, as a result of Fetterman has some fascinating issues to say: “Simply this morning, I tweeted concerning the micro-dosing revolution. Pennsylvania is the mushroom capital of the world, fairly actually. We produce extra mushrooms than anyone. And we now have this different plant, only a plant [marijuana], that might be an infinite boon from a well being and welfare [perspective], from an trade [perspective], from all types of views. And that’s one other factor that we may get out in entrance of, fairly frankly. It’s that libertarian factor the place it’s like, “The place do you get off telling me what I’m able to do or not do for my very own well-being and well being when these are issues that I can develop in my yard with tomatoes.” And I feel everybody’s lastly realizing how actually absurd this view is. And also you don’t should have an R [or a] D after your identify to be disgusted by that sort of prohibitionist mindset.” • Properly, nice for Pennsylvania, however holy moley, I used to be I do know individuals who have been doing pyschedelics earlier than “libertarianism” was even a phrase.

2024

“Biden’s Misplaced Marbles” [National Review]. “n the primary day of November, President Biden visited the OB Johnson Park and group heart in Hallandale Seaside, Fla., to ship remarks on ‘defending Social Safety and Medicare and reducing prescription drug prices,’ because the White Home described the occasion. Unsurprisingly, Biden departed from the principle matter, and in the course of his remarks he executed the uncommon double-cringer: ‘Inflation is a worldwide downside proper now due to a conflict in Iraq. . . . Excuse me, the conflict in Ukraine. I’m considering of Iraq as a result of that’s the place my son died.’ This was the second time in a month that the president inaccurately claimed that his son Beau died in Iraq. Beau Biden was deployed in Iraq from October 2008 to October 2009, and in 2013 he had a ‘small lesion’ faraway from his mind and was identified with mind most cancers. In 2015, Beau Biden handed away from that most cancers. President Biden has contended a number of occasions, with out medical proof, that his son’s mind most cancers was attributable to burn pits used on army bases in Iraq. Because the New York Occasions’ chief White Home correspondent, Peter Baker, gently put it, Biden’s ‘misstatements have turn into extra pronounced, and extra seen, now that he has the highlight of the presidency always on him.’”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, the truth is, a tough downside. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Growing prosocial habits and lowering selfishness within the lab and on a regular basis life” [Nature]. The Summary: “The stress between selfishness and prosocial habits is essential to understanding many social interactions and conflicts. At the moment little is thought methods to promote prosocial behaviors, particularly in naturally occurring relationships outdoors the laboratory. We examined whether or not a psychological micro-intervention would promote prosocial behaviors in {couples}. Throughout two research, we randomized dyads of {couples} to a micro-intervention (15 min), which elevated prosocial behaviors by 28% and decreased egocentric behaviors by 35% every week later in behavioral video games in a dose–response method.” • Fascinating outcome. I can’t dredge up the hyperlink, however I appear to recall that elevated “prosocial habits” was just lately really useful by one of many teams doing Covid post-mortems. In any case, I went on the lookout for the micro-intervention. Right here it’s:

The micro-intervention educated abilities beforehand proven to advertise psychological flexibility34. The micro-intervention took on common 15 min. In a primary step, contributors have been instructed to explain struggles and stress they’re presently experiencing inside their every day life. In a second, they have been requested about individuals, actions, and different issues of their lives which are genuinely essential to them (i.e., values). Utilizing an experiential metaphorical train, contributors have been requested to expertise how their struggles interfered with the issues they valued. Then, abilities of current second consciousness and acceptance have been practiced with the purpose of experiencing extra flexibility to make room for the issues with which they wrestle. Thereafter, the relation to their values was as soon as once more probed. The overarching purpose of the brief train was to expertise that pushing away, avoiding, and battling stress makes it tougher to work together with significant people and do significant actions. The launched abilities aimed to assist contributors pay attention to this, select whether or not to make use of acceptance, and to consciously concentrate on significant individuals and actions.

This flexibility coaching was written down together with follow directions inside a dairy that was given between T1 and T2. Contributors have been instructed to follow the workout routines as soon as a day. The talents included within the diary have been the identical as within the train and included current second consciousness (by way of an audio file), fascinated about their private values, acceptance, considering methods to interact extra with their values, in addition to reflecting about obstacles to implementing valued oriented habits.

This intervention doesn’t strike me as that “micro.” OTOH, it’s one thing that might simply turn into a part of one’s every day routine. It’s additionally the very reverse of what one does on social media. It additionally strikes me that “pro-social” = “enhance social capital accumulation” (worth impartial, importantly).

Social capital in church buildings:

With a invoice; name the native church, meals pantries; the church, daycare facilities; the church catastrophe shelters; the church. Almost each sense of assist comes from the church. Though they usually occasions spew propaganda, rejecting that usually occasions leaves individuals much more remoted & 2

— Danielle_Kirk731 (@DKirk731) November 10, 2022

#COVID19

Lambert right here: I can’t name a winter surge, although we’ll actually have to attend for Thanksgiving journey. Nevertheless, excessive transmission (CDC), the elevation and continued enhance in positivity (Walgreens), and the regular takeover of BQ.1* (CDC; Walgreens) are all a bit unsettling (as is the obvious proliferation of variants). Keep protected on the market!

• Hypothesis on “immune exhaustion”:

Not implausible.

• The workplace:

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to group transmission. (That is the map CDC desires solely hospitals to take a look at, not you.)

Distinction CDC’s notorious “inexperienced map” (above). Don’t use it!

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s take a look at positivity tracker, printed November 11:

1.2%. Enhance.

Wastewater

Wastewater information (CDC), November 7:

Lambert right here: Every dot is a sewershed that you may click on for information. Since yesterday we discovered elevated ranges in JFK/LGA’s county, Queens, I regarded right this moment at ORD’s county, Cook dinner (considered one of two counties, really). Not elevated, which is sweet information, all of the extra as a result of Illinois ‘runs scorching” in comparison with most different states.

November 6:

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant information is. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, educational tempo totally incompatible with defending your self in opposition to a variant exhibiting doubling habits.

UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), printed November 11:

Lambert right here: BQ.1* shifting alongside fairly briskly.

Lambert right here: Shifting to the date at backside left; the date within the notes part is off, simply because the date within the positivity chart was off.

UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (CDC), October 22 (Nowcast off):

BQ.1* shifting alongside fairly briskly. New York/New Jersey (Area 2) numbers are increased:

UPDATED And as a verify, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization continues to extend, up to date November 10:

Lambert right here: Continued rise.

• In the meantime:

Even CDC’s notorious “Inexperienced Map” (which incorporates hospitalization as a lagging indicator) says New York Metropolis is in hassle….

Deaths

Loss of life charge (Our World in Information):

Complete: 1,099,856 – 1,099,494 = 362 (362 * 365 = 132,130, which is right this moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may should resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of loss of life and illness).

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, not like all the pieces else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of curiosity right this moment.

NOTE: Readers, I’m submitting the FTX meltdown materials below “Guillotine Watch” as a substitute of right here, below “The Bezzle,” as a result of that’s clearly the place it goes.

Tech: “Inside Elon Musk’s first assembly with Twitter staff” (transcript) [The Verge]. Good scoop for the Verge. One fascinating angle:

I feel there’s this transformative alternative in funds. And funds actually are simply the alternate of data. From an data standpoint, not an enormous distinction between, say, simply sending a direct message and sending a cost. They’re mainly the identical factor. In precept, you should use a direct messaging stack for funds. And in order that’s undoubtedly a course we’re going to go in, enabling individuals on Twitter to have the ability to ship cash wherever on the planet immediately and in actual time. We simply wish to make it as helpful as attainable.

This might be helpful, particularly to “creators” (horrid phrase) like writers, artists, photographers. It could additionally give PayPal, a ginormous monopoly, a competitor ( you, Matt Stoller). I’ll say Musk has brass ones.

Tech: The Twitter:

Tech: The Twitter:

I don’t love Musk. However the present Twitter dogpile appears to me like our organs of state safety + the higher reaches of the PMC within the media being actually ticked off they’ve misplaced management over a significant platform and may’t censor their political opponents anymore. (Reckless as common, they’re ignoring that if they bring about Twitter down, they’ll damage individuals who use Twitter as the general public utility it must be, and evaporate quite a lot of social capital for uninteresting normals like aerosol scientists, masking communities, and writers.)

In the present day’s Worry & Greed Index: 63 Greed (earlier shut: 52 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 54 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 10 at 12:36 PM EST.

Guillotine Watch

Readers, I didn’t assume I wanted to waste quite a lot of time trying deeply into what SBF was doing, after writing “Moms, Lock Up Your Sons So They Don’t Follow “Yield Farming” in Crypto” (primarily based on this text by Bloomberg, “Sam Bankman-Fried Described Yield Farming and Left Matt Levine Shocked“). Certainly, it was solely a matter of time.

“Sam Bankman-Fried steps down as FTX CEO as his crypto alternate information for chapter” [CNBC]. • “FFS, put him on the subsequent flight to Venezuela!” (For future reference, SBF = Sam Bankman-Fried.)

From the center of the PMC:

Stoller untangles the rip-off that’s crypto:

SBF’s cuddle puddle:

Massive if true, and sure, the FTX org chart I printed in Hyperlinks this morning was, certainly, obfuscatory:

What a disgrace, “efficient altruism” goes belly-up:

Presumably as a result of efficient altruism is a money-laundering/virtue-cleansing rip-off.

And right here an amusing article from the crypto press, which I by no means hyperlink to, since they’re clearly within the enterprise of roping within the marks:

“From Billionaire to Almost Homeless: The Story of three Crypto CEOs” [BeInCrypto]. • That’s a rattling disgrace.

The Gallery

Bonnard can draw!

Class Warfare

“Pittsburgh newspaper staff go on strike over unfair labor follow” [Guardian]. “Greater than 100 staff represented by 5 labor unions on the Pittsburgh Publish-Gazette are presently on an unfair labor follow strike, together with manufacturing, distribution, promoting and accounts receivable employees. The strike initially started after the newspaper’s administration, Block Communications owned by the Block household, reduce off medical health insurance for workers on 1 October after refusing to pay an extra $19 every week per worker to take care of the prevailing protection. ‘Having medical health insurance is without doubt one of the most essential elements of the center class. It was the ultimate straw for us – we have been in a position to say this was an unfair labor follow and we walked off the job,’ stated Kitsy Higgins, an promoting consultant who’s been on the Publish-Gazette for one yr. Higgins stated the newspaper’s administration had tried to get staff to just accept a healthcare plan with a $14,000 deductible that they rejected as a result of it was unaffordable to make use of.”

Information of the Wired

“Reclaiming (Cellular) Privateness with GrapheneOS” [マリウス]. That is extraordinarily nerdy, helpful for the type of one that installs their very own OS on their cellphone. Right here’s a helpful nugget, nevertheless: “As well as there’s additionally a community permission toggle that’s unique to GrapheneOS. This toggle exhibits as a checkbox on the ‘Set up app’ popup that seems when a person opens an APK. Unchecking community permissions would prohibit the precise app from instantly and not directly accessing any of the obtainable networks. That’s a helpful characteristic for apps that gained’t want community entry anyway – e.g. a gallery or a launcher – to verify they gained’t do shady issues.” •

Oh noes:

“Mastodon.” So, I’ve to get no less than two names? One with preliminary caps, the opposite camel-cased? Or three? If I do, can I alias one account to the opposite? Like “toot” for “tweet,” who thought this was a good suggestion?

Dad.

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From AM:

AM writes: “October tomatoes.” A pleasant crop, and reminder that you simply don’t essentially must personal or lease land to have a backyard.” Not quite a lot of backyard pictures this yr, to date. No motive to hesitate about sending them in earlier than the snow flies!

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives: