So You Assume We Have been In a Recession in 2022H1? – Final Observations for 2022


Not less than anyone nonetheless believes that as of a pair weeks in the past.

Determine 1, High Panel: GDP (black), GDO (tan), GDP+ (inexperienced), all in bn.Ch.2012$ SAAR. GDP+ based mostly on cumulated progress charges, scaled to 2018Q1. Backside Panel: Coincident index (blue), nonfarm payroll employment (inexperienced), combination weekly hours (tan), civilian employment (purple), automobile miles traveled (purple), all in logs, 2021Q4=0. This fall observations for employment, hours, based mostly on October and November information. Lilac shading denotes peak-to-trough hypothetical recession. Supply: BEA by way of FRED, BEA, Philadelphia Fed by way of FRED, Philadelphia Fed, BLS by way of FRED, FHA by way of FRED, and creator’s calculations. 

Observe that GDP, GDO, and VMT are the three sequence that declined from 2021Q4. Nonetheless, we all know that GDP and GDO will subsequently revised (and GDP+ rose). (Recall, utilizing the 2-consecutive quarter rule on present GDP information, there’s no recession of 2001.) Observe additional that nonfarm payroll and combination weekly hours will probably be revised upward, given the preliminary benchmark revision.

Therefore, I’m nonetheless skeptical that the NBER Enterprise Cycle Relationship Committee will declare a recession in 2022H1. However since all of the variables might be revised going ahead (besides maybe VMT), one can’t be sure.




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