The divergence between efficiency recorded by primarily labor market indicators (within the coincident index for February launched as we speak) and output primarily based indicators persists.
Determine 1: GDP+ (blue bars), Month-to-month GDP (pink line), and coincident index (blue), all in logs 2021M11=0. GDP+ stage calculated by iterating progress charges on 2019Q4 precise GDP. Pink dashed line at expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine. Supply: Philadelphia Fed, Philadelphia Fed by way of FRED, S&P Market Intelligence, and creator’s calculations.
