US, Relaxation-of-Superior, Rising Markets, observe up on particular person nations’ time period spreads in yesterday’s submit.
Determine 1: (5 to 10yr)-3mo Time period Unfold for US (black), for rest-of-advanced nations (blue), and rising markets (pink), in %. NBER outlined peak-to-trough US recession dates shaded grey. Supply: Dallas Fed Database of International Economic Indicators, accessed 6/15/2023, and NBER.
Warning: Aggregates are US commerce weighted (i.e., not GDP weighted). You may consider this as a graph of international time period spreads, with better weights on nations like Canada and China, with which the US trades so much with.
