2:00PM Water Cooler 8/16/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, yesterday I devoted most of my time to a (obligatory) deep dive into Part Three. At present I needed to proceed that work, and get a deal with — any deal with — on Trump’s Georgia indictment, too. I’ll shortly fill in some Covid blanks; there shall be lots extra Covid goodness tomorrow, after I assault HICPAC but once more. Extra quickly! –lambert UPDATE All achieved!

Fowl Music of the Day

Bobolink, Finger Lakes NF–Horton Pasture and Interloken Path, Seneca, New York, United States.

Search for the Helpers

“Are Libraries the Way forward for Media? [Popula (TH)]. 

Library Futures and Hearken [a company that helps newsrooms practice “”engagement journalism””] approached Albany Public Libraries and the Occasions Union about working collectively. So the coalition put out a survey and, to the shock of everybody concerned, near 800 Albany library patrons and residents replied.

“”That’s uncommon for us,”” mentioned DiCarlo. “”Often we put out a patron survey and we’ll get a pair hundred responses. The truth that 800 individuals had been concerned about native information and the way it’s modified for them over the past couple a long time… was [remarkable].””

The survey surfaced numerous helpful findings, however one stood out: based on the ultimate report, 65% of these surveyed who didn’t use Occasions Union indicated that lack of entry was the explanation. “”Subscriptions had been probably the most cited want for patrons to enhance entry [to news].””

“”Initially, we thought it might be superb if there have been a distinct relationship [between] libraries and [paywalled] newsrooms, in that newsrooms may supply consumer-grade variations of the information to library patrons,”” mentioned Brandel–in distinction, that’s, with the library’s clunky, hard-to-use entry instruments, akin to Newsbank, that had been at the moment in use. “”However that breaks numerous the enterprise mannequin logic, which is an even bigger, stickier concern.””

(When you’re questioning why it is sensible for purveyors of data to cost for entry to data that’s each about and for the general public, you’re asking the proper query.)

And so, as an alternative of providing a digital, consumer-grade model of the paper to library patrons free of charge, the coalition determined to supply unique journalism collectively. A funds of about $100,000 funded the group’s collaboration and the manufacturing of eight tales. Each the APL and the Occasions Union would personal the articles, retaining the proper to publish them on their very own web sites and digital channels, freed from any paywall, and thus free for all to learn.

TH writes: “Sure, there’s the Betteridge’s Regulation violation however librarians are nice civic helpers. (Full disclosure, I really like libraries a lot, I married a librarian!)”

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order

Two households, each alike in dignity,
In truthful Verona, the place we lay our scene,
From historic grudge break to new mutiny,
The place civil blood makes civil arms unclean. –William Shakespeare, Romeo and Juliet

Shakespeare says the 2 households are “alike” in dignity, however he doesn’t say how a lot dignity they really have. If Verona’s households are like our events, the reply is “not a lot.”

* * *

“The Sweep and Drive of Part Three” [William Baude and Michael Stokes Paulsen, University of Pennsylvania Law Review]. I extremely advocate this piece (and the following dialogue at NC, beginning right here). As a former English main and a fan of shut studying, I’m not averse to “originalism,” of which Baude and Paulsen present a magisterial instance, within the sense that understanding the legislation as a textual content should start with understanding the plain, public that means of the phrases used when the textual content was written. That’s how I learn Shakespeare, or Joyce, so why not the Structure? Simply so long as understanding doesn’t finish there! In any case, I’m working via it. One factor I discover is that there do appear to have been quite numerous rebellions and insurrections, not simply the Civil Warfare. To me, that is parallel to at least one lesson I drew from Mike Duncan’s Revolutions podcast (episode 1): There are quite numerous revolutions, too. Alert reader Pensions Man summarizes Baude and Paulsen as follows:

The authors undergo an exhaustive textual and originalism evaluation of Part Three, and their Federalist Society leanings don’t deter them from reaching their conclusion that officers in each State who’re charged with figuring out candidate {qualifications} ought to conclude that Donald Trump is disqualified from being on ballots due to the oath he took on Inauguration Day 2017 and subsequently violated via his function within the rebel that passed off on January 6, 2021.

Taking “rebel” as learn (I have to do extra studying), right here is one other aggregation on Part Three.

* * *

“The constitutional case that Donald Trump is already banned from being president” [Vox]. “On Baude and Paulsen’s learn, Part 3 is ‘self-executing‘ — that means it doesn’t require an act of Congress to enter power and binds these public officers within the place to behave on its dictates. Mainly, if a single official anyplace within the US electoral system finds their constitutional evaluation compelling, Baude and Paulsen urge them to behave on it.” No court docket dedication wanted. Agree or disagree, that’s what Baude and Paulsen say. Extra: “As a matter of legislation, I discover their arguments fairly compelling…. However go rogue [framing!] is a recipe for catastrophe. And that disconnect, between what the legislation says and the sensible obstacles to implementing it, speaks to some deep issues in American democracy that led to Trump’s rebel within the first place….  Think about — simply think about — that native election administration officers in states like Georgia, Wisconsin, or Arizona acted on Baude and Paulsen’s recommendation and knocked Trump off the overall election poll…. Worst case — effectively, the January 6 riot may have been lots bloodier than it already was…. Equally, a critical effort to render Trump ineligible would run up in opposition to the sensible drawback that he’s a near-lock to be the candidate of one of many two main events — which, in a extremely polarized system, means he’ll be the candidate of roughly half of the voters. There’s little motive to consider courts get pleasure from sufficient legitimacy amongst Republicans (or Democrats, for that matter) to be able to kick a major-party candidate off the poll. The systemic penalties of such an try may effectively be devastating.” • IOW, each the By no means Trumpers and the liberal Democrats are setting the nation up for a civil warfare. And in the event that they consider they will win it, they’re as delusional because the slaveholders who fashioned the Confederacy. 

“Imposing the 14th Modification’s Bar on Insurrectionist Officers and Candidates” [American Constitution Society]. The ACS is the New York Generals to the Federalist Society’s Harlem Globetrotters. “. A few of these officers will invariably say that Trump is ineligible, and he’ll then problem these rulings in court docket. Whereas there’s authority holding that Part Three shouldn’t be self-enforcing in an space underneath federal jurisdiction (for example, within the District of Columbia), states did implement Part Three on their very own throughout Reconstruction and may achieve this once more. The Supreme Court docket will virtually definitely be requested to listen to not less than one of many state circumstances on Trump’s eligibility. Nonetheless, Congress ought to take motion to implement Part Three in opposition to anybody engaged within the January sixth rebel. There’s at the moment no federal statutory authority to implement Part Three, and if this deficiency shouldn’t be addressed many issues will observe. First, some states might merely select to disregard Part Three or do minimal enforcement. Second, having every state implement Part Three in its personal method will lead to a haphazard system particularly ill-suited to resolving a query of presidential ineligibility. Third, if former President Trump runs once more, his eligibility should be decided promptly–earlier than any elections happen–in any other case the Republican nominating contest shall be thrown in chaos.” • I’m assuming solely Democrat election officers would rule Trump ineligible. And even they are going to need cowl within the type of skilled opinion — cowl which I’m certain the dense community of NGOs and assume tanks that contains the Censorship Industrial Advanced shall be primed to offer. Commentary:

I knew the repair was in in Georgia after I noticed the Georgia elections individuals had teamed up w/ CIA cut-out Freedom Home, CIA operative turned censorship czarista Renee DiResta, & the censorship mafioso CEO of NewsGuard.https://t.co/zKMIQgbrqv pic.twitter.com/lBVDdv797h

— Mike Benz (@MikeBenzCyber) August 15, 2023

One large completely satisfied! (NOTE: These associations don’t present that the Georgia indictment is something apart from the work product of the Fulton Nation prosecutors workplace. However they’re suggestive nonetheless.

“States have the ability to guage the {qualifications} of presidential candidates and exclude ineligible candidates from the poll, in the event that they wish to use it” [Election Law Blog]. “However I wished to concentrate on one small (however necessary!) piece, the poll entry concern, which I’ve written about extensively over time–these are my very own views that attempt to synthesize the Structure’s textual content and construction with an extended liquidated practices of the states. In brief, …. Consider it this manner. The state legislature desires to make sure that the state is represented within the number of the president and vp. If the state’s electoral votes are later discarded in Congress (assume Congress discarding votes for the deceased Horace Greeley in 1873), the state actually has no alternative to take part successfully within the Electoral School. That is completely different from congressional elections, in my judgment. Congressional elections are in regards to the individuals’s unfettered selection. If the individuals select to elect a candidate who shouldn’t be certified to carry workplace–they usually have repeatedly achieved so prior to now, with candidates of questionable age or inhabitancy {qualifications}–it’s on the individuals to take action, and on Congress to resolve whether or not to seat. And if there’s a emptiness, the individuals have one other option to fill the seat, albeit with a emptiness that exists for a while. There isn’t any such analogous direct curiosity of the individuals in presidential elections, because the Electoral School is designedly created of illustration from the states, and from guidelines promulgated by the legislature. (It is a contentious proposition, to make certain, however I believe is one of the best ways of addressing the variations between the 2.)” • Hmm. It’s laborious to think about a gaggle, not to mention an identification, seceding, or a political entity like a county. However a state, however…. For that, there’s precedent. One wonders what would occur if a Republican state handed a legislation nullifying, or purporting to nullify, Part Three? (Would that be all that completely different from “sanctuary cities”?)

“The Looming Supreme Court docket Nullification Disaster” [Washington Monthly]. Beginning out with Alabama’s defiance of the Supreme Court docket’s ruling in Allen v. Milligan {that a} districting map violated the voting rights Act. Then: “Since 2016, Republicans’ shameless political meddling with the Court docket—the blockade of the Merrick Garland nomination, the issuance of Donald Trump’s record of judges, and his promise that his judges would “”routinely”” overturn—had been radical occasions. These and what adopted made the Court docket a distinct establishment than it had been since not less than the Nineteen Thirties when the ‘swap in time’ ended its vendetta in opposition to the New Deal. Merely put, it isn’t performing like a court docket; it won’t be handled indefinitely by buddy or foe as if it had been one. The issue with contemptible conduct is that it attracts contempt from mates and foes. Let’s get critical: Everybody sees not less than some members of the conservative majority for what they’re—not merely intellectually however, to a shocking diploma, truly dishonest, the sort of traffic-court hacks who will be purchased with dinner at Applebee’s, a dime-store award plaque, and a weekend at Myrtle Seashore.  .” • Simply the sort of Court docket we would like ruling on a problem to Trump’s elimination from the poll underneath Part Three. Both method. Bush v. Gore², or, relying on the variety of states concerned, Bush v. Gore^N.

“Neglect the Trump trials. He may already be ineligible for 2024” [WaPo]. “Ideally, this case can be settled earlier than the primaries start in January. Realistically, nevertheless, which may not be attainable. . That method, voters in November 2024 wouldn’t be making a selection by which one of many two major-party contenders can be ineligible to serve if elected. What can be disastrous for democracy can be for Trump to look on the November 2024 poll because the Republican nominee, then to win the election, and afterward be disqualified and denied a second time period. But that would occur if, with out a Supreme Court docket ruling earlier than the GOP conference, Congress had been to resolve for itself that Trump was disqualified and so it should nullify the desire of the voters when it convenes to depend the electoral faculty votes in January 2025.” • The Republican Nationwide Conference shall be held July 15 to 18, 2024, in Milwaukee, WI. Maybe I ought to arrange one other countdown clock….

“The Riot Bar to Workplace: Part 3 of the Fourteenth Modification” [Congressional Research Service]. From 2022. “, no matter the Amnesty Act. The Congressman, Victor Berger, was finally seated at a subsequent Congress after the Supreme Court docket threw out his espionage conviction for judicial bias…. As proven within the Berger expertise mentioned above, Congress has beforehand seen Part 3 of the Fourteenth Modification as establishing an enumerated constitutional qualification for holding workplace and, consequently, a grounds for attainable exclusion.” • Clearly, Wilsonian Democrats would don’t have any extra hassle disbarring a socialist from workplace than as we speak’s Democrats, however Republicans may effectively think about whether or not members of their occasion who oppose the Ukraine may very well be disbarred for giving “help and luxury to the enemy,” as was Berger.

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

“The State of Georgia v. Donald Trump [et al.]” [Fulton Country Superior Court]. A lot of the protection of this case appears to concentrate on “false statements” and the riot on the Capitol on January 6. (That is comprehensible, for the reason that first reinforces the ability of the Censorship Industrial Advanced, a lot beloved by liberal Democrats, and the second is includes conspiracy, the place everybody can turn into their very own counterintelligence service. The Georgia case additionally has Trump’s “excellent telephone” name, however (a) Trump certainly had attorneys with him when he made it (readers?), and (b) are we actually to consider no Democrat ever made a name to get an election official to “discover” votes? Or, within the unhappy case of Sanders, to lose them.) Nonetheless, I consider, as with Smith’s indictment, that the counts involving the “contingent electors” are by far probably the most harmful, each from the standpoint of successful a conviction, and morally as effectively. Right here is the conspiracy depend:

And one of many acts in furtherance of the _{MR SUBLIMINAL Bud from Authorized insists I add this} alleged conspiracy:

Legally — after all, individuals with prosecutorial experience might disagree; IANAP — the elector counts appear simpler to show, first as a result of there are not any pesky First Modification points (like Trump tweeting to God and the universe being an Act), and second as a result of they’re tangible; conferences are organized, so there’s a sequence of command; paperwork are distributed and signed, so there’s a paper path; ballots from the electors are despatched and obtained. Morally, it’s necessary to keep in mind that many (I don’t know what number of) electors had been recruited on the express dedication by the Trump marketing campaign that their votes can be used solely if Trump received a court docket problem displaying or intimating election theft not less than one state, which is why they had been referred to as “contingent”; however the Trump marketing campaign then went on to violate that dedication. That’s fallacious, and utilizing and discarded supporters displays very badly on Trump. IMNSHO, that is the cost that would gap the Trump marketing campaign under the waterline.

“Why Trump’s Georgia prices can be the toughest to pardon” [The Hill]. “Article II of the U.S. Structure grants the president the only energy of issuing pardons for offenses “”in opposition to the USA,”” however that energy is just for federal prices, not state ones. The governor of New York can concern pardons for state crimes, which may clear Trump within the case over 2016 hush-money funds made to porn actress Stormy Daniels that led to prices of falsifying enterprise data. Specialists say these prices are the least doubtless of the 4 circumstances to lead to jail time for the previous president. However the governor in Georgia has no such pardon energy.  As a substitute, the Georgia State Board of Pardons and Paroles is chargeable for overseeing all requests for clemency. The governor is chargeable for appointing the board’s 5 members with state Senate approval, however they in any other case don’t have any affect over the board’s decision-making. Members serve seven-year phrases which are staggered. And Trump wouldn’t even be eligible to use for a Georgia pardon till not less than 5 years after finishing any sentence, together with parole and probation. A person additionally can’t be thought-about for a pardon if they’ve any pending prices, so he couldn’t obtain a preemptive one.  Trump may serve intensive time if convicted of the Georgia prices.”

“Georgia Indictment Throws Every thing at Trump—and Some Would possibly Stick” [Jonathan Turley, The Daily Beast]. “Welcome to the Jackson Pollock faculty of prosecution. The 98-page indictment from Fulton County District Lawyer Fani Willis is the authorized model of Pollock’s model of throwing paint splatters on canvas as creative expression. It principally makes each phone name, tweets, and assembly a separate conspiratorial act. There are 161 separate acts. Not surprisingly, everybody then turns into a part of the conspiracy…. However for all of the disparate acts that Willis says constitutes a felony conspiracy, a part of this rising image ought to fear Trump….. There are three explanation why this indictment may very well be probably the most perilous for Trump, versus the Jan. 6 indictments, which current critical threshold constitutional questions. First, the racketeering circumstances are typically iron-plated earlier than trial as a result of challenges concern the interpretation of info, that are historically questions left to the finder of truth (on this case a jury)…. Second, in D.C., particular counsel Smith is actually attempting to create new legislation, or not less than stretch present case legislation to the purpose of breaking down. Conversely, elections are left largely to the states, and state prosecutors routinely carry election-based prosecutions. Willis could also be stretching the proof, however she shouldn’t be stretching the legislation. Racketeering legal guidelines are routinely used far afield from their origins in combating felony gangs…. Lastly, as a state motion, this isn’t a prosecution that may be ended prematurely with a presidential pardon…. Many people disagreed with Trump after the election and publicly rejected the claims of systemic voting fraud. Nonetheless, Trump had a proper to not solely problem the election however to be fallacious. That’s the reason the Willis indictment is a critical menace to Trump but in addition to our system of democratic course of. Pollock as soon as mentioned that ‘when I’m in my portray, I’m not conscious of what I’m doing.’ In contrast to painters, prosecutors shouldn’t have the identical luxurious. What Willis is doing right here is extreme and it’s harmful.”

“Who’s Fani Willis, the Georgia district legal professional who indicted Trump?” [Al Jazeera]. ” Willis is thought for pursuing RICO prices, which she mentioned enable for a extra full image of felony circumstances. A divorced mom of two, Willis grew up principally in Washington, DC, together with her father, whom she describes as a felony defence legal professional and former Black Panther. She attended Howard College, a traditionally Black college within the US capital, and earned a legislation diploma from Emory College in Atlanta. She labored as a lawyer earlier than becoming a member of the Fulton County district legal professional’s workplace as an assistant prosecutor. Ultimately, she challenged and unseated her former boss, Paul Howard, because the county’s prime prosecutor. Willis, nevertheless, confronted criticism from social justice activists and election rivals in 2020 for receiving an endorsement and marketing campaign contributions from a significant police union throughout her marketing campaign. Police unions usually defend officers concerned in misconduct.” • The Cop-Loving Black Girl Who’s Going to Convey Down Trump! Let the votive candles be ready! And let’s not point out Stacey Abrams, bless her coronary heart, beforehand beloved of liberal Democrat Schwärmer.

“Scott McAfee Has Been a Decide Six Months. He Is Now Assigned Trump’s Georgia Case.” [Wall Street Journal]. “McAfee, 34 years outdated, has spent a lot of his profession as a prosecutor, first for the Fulton County district legal professional and later for the U.S. legal professional’s workplace in Atlanta. McAfee was randomly assigned the case, however he has labored for key individuals concerned within the occasions of 2020: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a fellow Republican whom Trump attacked repeatedly for not becoming a member of his effort to overturn Trump’s loss; former U.S. Lawyer Byung J. Pak, whom Trump compelled out of workplace for not becoming a member of the hassle; and Fani Willis, the Democratic district legal professional in Fulton County whose greater than 2½-year probe led to the costs. Attorneys in Atlanta name McAfee good {and professional}. These qualities shall be examined in a big case that may contain Trump, who has adopted an usually brazen strategy to his authorized proceedings. The case will contain different well-known defendants akin to former Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani, a brigade of attorneys, complicated jury choice, a cascade of authorized motions from either side, jurors who must serve for months not less than, a horde of reporters, and intense safety points on the Fulton County courthouse and surrounding space in downtown Atlanta.” • 34. Lower than half Trump’s age. And Biden’s.

* * *

“Donald Trump indicted: The previous president’s one large benefit as felony prices pile up” [Washington Examiner]. .However Trump is uniquely suited to the post-2000 American divisions in a method that Mitt Romney and John McCain weren’t. That is true of a few of Trump’s different rivals contained in the GOP…. For this reason Trump has survived Entry Hollywood, the Russia investigation, two impeachments, the 2020 election loss, Jan. 6, and indictments in 4 circumstances spanning a number of jurisdictions. He leads practically a dozen different Republicans by a margin that has by no means been overcome even at this early part of the race in fashionable main historical past. And he trails Biden by lower than a degree. Trump goes to make the argument that his authorized troubles stem from Biden’s Justice Division and partisan Democratic native prosecutors attempting to ‘lock him up’ whereas turning a blind eye to extra critical crimes, together with their very own. Which may not get him out of his authorized jam. But it surely may very well be sufficient to make Trump the Republican presidential nominee for the third straight election. And after that, something can occur.” • What frosts me probably the most is the Get together of RussiaGate, Ukraine, and mass an infection with out mitigation howling and yammering about “false statements.” Howling and yammering, if one can achieve this, with straight faces. Vociferously and constantly.

* * *

“Opinion: The lesson Obama may educate DeSantis” [CNN]. “[DeSantis] has stumbled in interviews, and infrequently parses his solutions in nakedly political methods — particularly when requested about Trump. This has arrange a distinction amongst Republican voters, who view DeSantis as an formidable, standard politician versus Trump, the audaciously genuine and potent avatar of an anti-establishment populist motion. The distinction was particularly clear final weekend on the Iowa State Honest, the place Trump obtained rock-star therapy — and DeSantis, by and enormous, didn’t. DeSantis’ flaws as a campaigner are issues that can’t simply be fastened, partly as a result of the candidate could also be proof against their fixing. Abraham Lincoln is alleged to have as soon as mentioned, ‘A person who represents himself has a idiot for a consumer.’ The identical will be mentioned of a candidate for president who runs his personal marketing campaign. One of many issues that has lengthy bounced round Florida political circles is DeSantis’ overreliance on his personal political instincts and people of his spouse, Casey DeSantis, a former tv information anchor. Possibly DeSantis has been chastened by the humbling opening stanzas of his marketing campaign. But it surely’s not clear how a lot of a shake-up final week’s change actually represented as DeSantis moved his supervisor — a longtime political aide — to the place of chief strategist and summoned his chief of workers from Tallahassee to turn into the brand new supervisor… Nonetheless, whereas this midsummer drama is an indication of misery, it’s too early to depend DeSantis out. Iowa has historically damaged late and infrequently in sudden instructions…. There are causes to doubt whether or not DeSantis can dwell as much as his extravagant advance billing. However he, like Obama, is inserting all his chips on Iowa.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I must do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Get together (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). 

Keep protected on the market!

Celeb Watch

And talking of Taylor Swift (see under):

Taylor Swift live performance goers write about getting Covid on the tremendous spreader tour occasions:

Many shall be disabled and die from these occasions: it is simply the stark actuality of Covid concert events: pic.twitter.com/TYLMbvek8n

— Chris Turnbull (@EnemyInAState) August 12, 2023

Love Potion #19…. 

Hackers, too:

Thus far 72 self-reported circumstances of COVID from DefCon. Hat tip @k8em0 https://t.co/f7ATzG8HM4

— Kim Zetter (@KimZetter) August 15, 2023

Censorship and Propaganda

Kudos to Twitter (1):

The #longcovid revolution: A reflexive thematic evaluation

❗INTERESTING: The clear energy of Twitter (Social Media)

Highlights:

➡️Twitter customers socially constructed lengthy COVID by sharing 31,000+ tweets.

➡️Lengthy COVID signs had been described as multi-system and cyclical.… pic.twitter.com/xwZi6hLfg8

— Harry Spoelstra (@HarrySpoelstra) August 16, 2023

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is perhaps a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A number of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with persona adjustments therefrom.

* * *

Case Information

NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, August 14:

Lambert right here: Not a lot of a soar over the past three days. Joyful reminiscences of tape-watching days! Will probably be attention-grabbing to see what occurs when colleges open up. I want to congratulate the Biden administration and the general public well being institution, the CDC particularly, for this monumental and unprecedented achievement. And a tip of the ol’ Water Cooler hat to the Nice Barrington goons, whose insurance policies have been adopted so assiduously! A curious truth: All of Biden’s peaks are greater than Trump’s peaks. Exhibits you what public well being can do when it’s firing on all eight cylinders! Musical interlude. NOTE I’m not completely satisfied that Biobot can’t replace this information extra steadily. 

Regional information:

No backward revisions; maybe the Midwest surge, and leveling off all over the place else, is actual. Let’s wait and see. Apparently, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

Regional variant information, August 5.

EG.5 (the orange pie slice) nonetheless appears evenly distributed. Sadly, the Midwest information shouldn’t be accessible, so we are able to’t infer something in regards to the Midwest surge and any variant(s), by hook or by crook. 

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, August 5:

From CDC, July 22:

Lambert right here: Unsure what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it appears to be like like now we have a “tag workforce,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 right down to measurement. I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information shall be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, August 12:

Lambert right here: Enhance is much more distinct. (The black line is “mixed”, however it’s straightforward to see that Covid, the crimson line, is driving all the pieces.)

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the whole pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

• Related information from Japan:

I might hazard a guess that Japan’s emergency response system is much extra practical than our personal, and so a greater proxy for Covid’s rise.

Hospitalization

I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading. Nonetheless, right here’s New York Metropolis:

Could possibly be worse, and probably shall be. However how a lot worse?

“COVID hospitalizations speed up for fourth straight week” [CBS]. “A complete of 10,320 sufferers within the U.S. had been newly hospitalized with COVID-19 for the week ending August 5, based on the figures revealed Monday, a rise of 14.3% from the week earlier than.  Ranges stay far under the summer season peak that strained hospitals presently final yr, when 42,813 admissions had been reported for the week of August 6, 2022. Hospitals throughout the Southeast are persevering with to report the nation’s highest price of COVID-19 admissions. Within the area spanning Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Tennessee, 4.58 new sufferers had been reported per 100,000 residents. The Southeast has additionally been reporting the best price of COVID-19 circumstances amongst nursing residence residents. Weekly infections are actually near the worst charges seen throughout 2021’s summer season wave within the area, however under more moderen peaks.” • The wastewater information (until revised) says hospitalization within the South ought to degree off quickly. Let’s wait and see.

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, August 14:

-0.7%. A pause right here, too? Apparently, persons are citing to this, too, in addition to Biobot. Vertical-ish, although absolutely the numbers are nonetheless very small relative to June 2022, say. Apparently, these don’t correlate with the regional figures for wastewater. (It might be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and acquired examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From CDC, July 24:

Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Primarily based Genomic Surveillance” information. They are saying “maps,” however I don’t see one…. 

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, August 9:

Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their methodology: “These information have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,172,148 – 1,172,112 = 36 (36 * 365 = 13,140 deaths per yr, as we speak’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this specific tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, August 16:

Lambert right here:  Again to virtually dailiy. Odd when it’s, odd when it stops. Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran endlessly with an enormous typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually taking a look at it, so I acquired rid it. )

Stats Watch

Housing: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins within the US rose by 3.9% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized price of 1.452 million in July 2023, above market expectations of 1.448 million.”

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial manufacturing in the USA fell by 0.2% from the earlier yr in July of 2023, extending the 0.4% decline within the earlier month.”

Capability: “United States Capability Utilization” [Trading Economics]. “Capability utilization within the US rose to 79.3% in July of 2023, in comparison with a downwardly revised 78.6% in June and barely above forecasts of 79.1%. ”

Finance: “Apple Card’s Financial savings Account Reached $10 Billion in Deposits” [Daring Fireball]. “That works out to a pleasant even $1,000 common per Apple Card consumer. I’m guessing although, that the median is way decrease, and the imply common is $1,000 as a result of a smaller variety of customers have transferred massive quantities to make the most of the 4.15 p.c rate of interest.” • And 10 million customers.

Actual Property: “An Workplace Is Not The Workplace” [Dror Poleg]. “the entire argument of the back-to-office puritans is that you simply can’t innovate or construct tradition “remotely.” However in actuality, this battle has already been misplaced. Having individuals collaborate throughout a number of places is now the norm. Whether or not these places are places of work, houses, or espresso retailers is a sideshow. Work is turning into distributed. Even when demand for workplace house will return to its pre-Covid degree (and it received’t), the demand shall be for house in lots of new places…. For the time being, there’s a vital mismatch between workplace demand and provide. Many individuals would like to have entry to an workplace close to residence. And never simply individuals; many firms would love such entry as effectively. However such house shouldn’t be accessible or is just too costly. In the meantime, the workplace house that’s accessible is within the locations the place individuals used to commute to however not want to. As I wrote in The Workplace Gained’t Budge, this is sort of a Monopoly recreation that went off the rails: ‘The landlords nonetheless have a monopoly. However demand is rising exterior of the monopoly board. And since buildings can’t transfer, those that personal them are at a drawback. I name this the Poleg Paradox: A state of affairs by which greater demand is unhealthy information for incumbents. It may be noticed when one occasion to the zero-sum recreation can immediately play by completely different guidelines.’”

At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 55 Impartial (earlier shut: 56 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 66 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 16 at 1:45 PM ET. Mr. Market is having a tragic!

The Conservatory

“How ‘American Graffiti’ Invented Basic Rock (and Modified My Life)” [The Honest Broker]. “It’s possible you’ll discover this tough to consider, however rock radio stations all targeted on new music within the Nineteen Sixties. They could often play an “”oldie,”” as they had been referred to as again then, however few individuals thought-about outdated rock a style in its personal proper. However across the time George Lucas was filming American Graffiti, the most popular music radio station in Los Angeles, KHJ—93 on the AM dial—was attempting to determine what to do with its FM bandwidth. For some time, it performed the identical present hits on AM and FM, however in late 1972 they determined to strive one thing completely different—they renamed the station KRTH (101) and determined to focus totally on rock songs from 1953 to 1963. By pure coincidence, George Lucas was counting on these usual rock and roll songs for the soundtrack of his film. And with superb outcomes—the soundtrack album was much more widespread than the movie, and shortly broke into the Billboard prime 10.

 he 41 songs on the double album outlined this new style. It didn’t also have a identify again then. The oldsters at KRTH referred to as it the gold format. However the American Graffiti soundtrack did even higher than gold—it went triple platinum.” • Specializing in “new music.” Think about!

Zeitgeist Watch

Oh noes:

“The darkish reality about Taylor Swift” [Unherd]. “It’s frequent information that girls like love tales. And people which achieve iconic standing have a tendency towards tragedy… What’s much less well-recognised is that this type of emotional depth, and the motif of doomed ardour that serves as its service, has roots in a thousand-year-old spiritual schism. And whereas its origin story has been largely forgotten, the religious starvation it encodes lives on in a perplexing trait usually seen within the younger, and maybe particularly younger girls: a yearning for romantic transcendence that’s tough to tell apart from self-destruction. Nowhere does this kamikaze mysticism disguise extra flagrantly and influentially in plain sight than within the wildly widespread music of Taylor Swift, and the worldwide cult of ‘Swifties’ she has impressed. … Our love-affair with doomed love begins in early Thirteenth-century France with the two-decade Albigensian Campaign which noticed the Cathar sect persecuted, tortured, slaughtered and scattered by the orthodox Christian Knights Templar, resulting in the deaths of an estimated 200,000. …. that violent spiritual battle additionally had one other, subtler and further-reaching legacy stemming from what occurred to the Cathar religion. For it didn’t disappear: it went underground. And the origins of the recurring theme of doomed ardour in Western tradition, based on the Swiss medievalist Denis de Rougemont, lie within the survival of Cathar heresy, hidden in plain sight in ‘courtly love’ literature. This work was created by the ‘troubadours’, poets and composers connected to Provençal courts — who had been, de Rougemont argues, not less than Cathar-influenced if not all secret heretics. For there are eerie parallels between their poetic mythologisation of knights and ‘courtly love’, and the heretical religion they had been slaughtered for. If, because it was for the Cathars, each soul was trapped in a state of eager for reunion with the Divine, when the troubadours sang of unrequited love of a knight for his ‘Girl’ that wasn’t a literal love story. Quite the opposite: it stood for that religious ache and longing. And since such a longing may solely be attained by escape from the jail of flesh — which is to say, by demise — the love of a knight for his ‘Girl’ couldn’t be consummated, besides by the demise of 1 or each. In different phrases: to convey its esoteric that means, the narrative ‘romance’ couldn’t have a ‘completely satisfied ever after’. In these phrases, the one actual completely satisfied ending is demise.” • Hmm. I’ve actually by no means listened to Taylor Swift; I favor Ok-Pop. Ought to I?

Class Warfare

The closest America ever got here to a European-style welfare state was underneath Trump, with the CARES Act:

Stochastic eugenicism continuing apace, I see. Joe, good job.

Information of the Wired

“LK-99 isn’t a superconductor — how science sleuths solved the thriller” [Nature]. “[A]fter dozens of replication efforts, many specialists are confidently saying that the proof reveals LK-99 shouldn’t be a room-temperature superconductor… The South Korean workforce based mostly its declare on two of LK-99’s properties: levitation above a magnet and abrupt drops in resistivity. However separate groups in Beijing, at Peking University3 and the Chinese language Academy of Sciences4 (CAS), discovered mundane explanations for these phenomena. One other examine, by US and European researchers, mixed experimental and theoretical proof to exhibit how LK-99’s construction made superconductivity infeasible. And different experimenters synthesized and studied pure samples6 of LK-99, erasing doubts in regards to the materials’s construction and confirming that it isn’t a superconductor, however an insulator. The one additional affirmation would come from the Korean workforce sharing their samples, says Michael Fuhrer, a physicist at Monash College in Melbourne, Australia. ‘The burden’s on them to persuade everyone else,’ he says.” • I hoped for a bit bit of fine information. In all probability others had been, as effectively. Though it’s excellent news that science, or not less than supplies science, nonetheless capabilities!

Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are high-quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From RM:

RM writes: “The western Spiderwort simply popped out on the prairie round right here after the foremost rain now we have had. A lot completely different than the drought situations that I skilled when in Michigan final month.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So should you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets: