2:00PM Water Cooler 10/16/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chook Tune of the Day

Barn Swallow, Stevenson Rd. Recreation Farm and Compost, Tompkins, New York, United States.

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

Two-front wars (1):

We’re essentially the most highly effective nation within the historical past of the world. We are able to maintain Israel and Ukraine and nonetheless preserve our general worldwide protection. pic.twitter.com/j3ajSs5sG8

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) October 16, 2023

We could attempt for 3?

Two-front wars (2):

America can “definitely” afford wars on two fronts, the nation’s Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has instructed Sky Information 👇 https://t.co/OxCgJn48TH

— Sky Information (@SkyNews) October 16, 2023

For some definition of “afford.”

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

“Trump on Marketing campaign Path: Barely Unhinged, Fully Unplugged” [RealClearPolitics]. “‘They’re going to do the electrical car nonsense, you already know?’ Trump instructed the viewers, in a single early second that appeared like a Seinfeld chilly open. ‘You set somewhat circle round your home. You may’t go outdoors the circle, you’ll by no means come again.’” • Far be it from me to be The Donald Whisperer, however I believe this was the piece of flotsam thrown up by Trump’s free affiliation:

Then once more:

“They pay hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in taxes!” Trump stated. “But, after they’re having a shower, they’re instructed to rush up. You’re solely allowed a small quantity of water whenever you’re having a shower. That’s why wealthy individuals from Beverly Hills, typically talking, don’t scent so good. Their hygiene will not be good. Nevertheless it’s pressured to be that manner. So whenever you meet any individual with a fantastic home in Beverly Hills, you already know that individual is type of disgusting underneath there.”

Expensive me! The entire article effectively value a learn:

However amidst the doom and gloom, it’s laughter that appears to be Trump’s goal at these rallies. Even after the grim and miserable information from Israel, the previous president didn’t deviate from a talking fashion that may finest be described as stand-up comedy. It is a president with Jewish grandchildren, bear in mind, however the largest slaughter of Jews for the reason that Holocaust was handled with gallows humor: The primary point out of Israel final Saturday night in Cedar Rapids got here with a quip at President Biden’s expense.

“He wasn’t Winston Churchill, let’s put it that manner,” Trump stated whereas critiquing the cautious preliminary response from the White Home. Then Trump did his Winston Churchill impression.

Bear in mind when Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert have been really touted as having political energy, by West Wing brains? Seems the comic who did was…. Donald Trump. It’s a humorous outdated world.

* * *

“New ballot suggests President Biden might have Pennsylvania downside for 2024” [CBS]. “A Quinnipiac ballot launched final week exhibits Biden narrowly trailing Trump in a hypothetical matchup within the commonwealth. The identical ballot discovered Biden’s favorability ranking amongst Pennsylvanians sits at simply 39%…. U.S. Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Penn.) serves on the Biden marketing campaign nationwide advisory board. Boyle stated sitting presidents have trailed previously. ‘Ronald Reagan, Invoice Clinton and Barack Obama have been all shedding within the polls,’ Boyle stated. ‘All of them clearly went on to win reelection and win really by fairly a margin.’ Boyle stated the president ought to proceed to push his financial message of job creation and low unemployment. However some have questioned the frequent visits to Philadelphia on the expense of rallying help in different areas of the state.” • Yep. The Democrats appear constiutionally incapable of ever implementing an “Each County, Each Vote”-style marketing campaign. All the way in which again to Obama strangling Howard Dean’s 50-state technique.

* * *

“Dean Phillips begins calling New Hampshire Dems in step towards difficult Biden” [Politico (nippersdad)]. “Rep. Dean Phillips has begun making calls to Democratic operatives and officers in New Hampshire, the newest step he’s taken towards launching a main problem towards President Joe Biden…. Phillips withdrew from Home Democratic management earlier this month, amid concern that his flirtation with a main bid was inflicting a distraction. He has met with Democratic donors over the summer time a few potential run. ‘He’s doing the belongings you would do in case you’re operating — or in case you’ve not formally determined and also you’re making an attempt to verify what the reception can be,’ stated a New Hampshire Democrat operative, granted anonymity to debate the problem candidly…. Phillips, in the meantime, drew his personal main challenger this week when Ron Harris, a DNC government committee member, introduced a bid for Phillips’ congressional seat.”

“Who Is Potential Biden Major Challenger Dean Phillips? Millionaire Former Gelato Exec Turned Congressman Would Be President’s Most Outstanding Opponent” [Forbes]. Gelato? Did he promote any to Nancy? ‘Requested by Forbes in 2017 if he believes enterprise executives make good politicians, Phillips responded: ‘Enterprise individuals are somewhat humbled after they enter the legislative enviornment, as a result of they’re used to creating selections which are then applied by individuals who report back to them, however…I by no means decide with out listening to two of essentially the most polar reverse views on any situation as a result of I wish to understand how the extremes really feel.’” • So, Overton Window firmly nailed in place? Enjoyable truth: Phillips is “Expensive Abby”‘s grandson He’s additionally “Drawback Solvers Caucus” member (Josh Gottheimer, D-Personal Fairness, co-chair).

* * *

“Spurious Spy Now Runs RFK, Jr. Marketing campaign” [Spy Talk]. Kucinich out, Amaryllis Fox Kennedy in: “Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s marketing campaign for president is now being run by his daughter-in-law, who occurs to be a former worker of the CIA—the identical company that RFK Jr. believes performed a task within the 1963 homicide of his uncle, the thirty fifth president, and his father…. Fox Kennedy was a “NOC,” one of many company’s operatives working underneath “non-official cowl.” NOCs work abroad as non-public people with none obvious affiliation with a U.S. authorities company or embassy, which leaves them susceptible to being caught spying.” • Numerous odd element, however “former worker of the CIA” is sufficient for me. Why? Fox Kennedy additionally wrote a memoir, Life Undercover. Has anybody learn it?

“Booze, beads and artwork amongst unclaimed presents lavished upon billionaire Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker” [Associated Press]. “The COVID-19 disaster imbued the governor’s admirers with generosity. From March 2020 by way of December 2021, Pritzker obtained 33 presents particularly in appreciation of his pandemic protocol, together with some that appeared extra private: handmade face-coverings, objects with inspirational messages, alternatives of meals and a Gov. Pritzker bobblehead from the Nationwide Bobblehead Corridor of Fame and Museum in Milwaukee. There additionally was ‘2:30 p.m. Man,’ a portray of a smiling Pritzker in acrylic by SeungRi “Victoria” Park, a Chicago schoolteacher and artist. ‘Every single day at 2:30, he confirmed up on my TV,’ stated Park, referring to Pritzker’s day by day information conferences throughout the worst of the pandemic. ‘I don’t vote for any politicians, however I like him. I wished to color him. He jogged my memory of Buddha.’ Pritzker, the state’s third Jewish governor, was not a non secular chief to Park, however his message resonated. ‘I don’t go together with faith and I don’t go together with politicians,” stated Park, who has remained freed from COVID-19 within the 3 1/2 years for the reason that coronavirus crept into Illinois. ‘However I’m going with science.’” • Good for Pritzker. I don’t imagine Newsom did this (maybe his dyslexia received in the way in which). Trump did, in fact.

“Democrats welcome mat for migrants can also be fraying celebration’s base” [Albany Herald]. “With no agency plans in place and the one concrete recommendation to incoming migrants being Pritzker’s warning that ‘it’s gonna get chilly in Chicago and New York very quickly,’ cracks among the many Democratic base, notably amongst key ethnic and racial blocs, have emerged over spending taxpayer {dollars} and housing for migrants. Regardless of the chilly political calculation of utilizing human beings as political pawns in a bigger federal recreation geared toward securing the nation’s southern border, Abbott’s technique of spreading the strain on the federal authorities could also be working. ‘We in fact are a welcoming state and have been caring for the individuals who’ve arrived. However we are able to’t bear the burden solely ourselves,’ Pritzker stated on CBS’ ‘Face the Nation‘ on his requires help from Democratic President Joe Biden’s administration. ‘It looks as if now could be the second to speak about border safety and immigration reform. We would like immigrants in the US, we additionally need border safety. It looks as if there’s a compromise there,’ the Democratic governor stated…. Now, with the management of the Republican-led U.S. Home unsettled, prospects for a complete immigration plan and vital federal assist to Chicago seem unlikely anytime quickly.”

* * *

VA: “Editorial: Neglect the morality play. For Dems, on-line intercourse scandal might spell catastrophe” [Richmond Times-Dispatch]. “It’s been greater than 5 weeks since information broke that Susanna Gibson, the Democratic candidate operating for the 57th District seat within the Home of Delegates, livestreamed intercourse acts along with her husband on a publicly accessible web site. The revelation, first reported in The Washington Put up, immediately turned the discuss of this yr’s important legislative election: All 140 seats of the Basic Meeting are on the poll, and a slim partisan break up — Republicans maintain the Home by 4 seats; Democrats have a four-seat edge within the Senate — is the one factor standing in the way in which of full Republican management of state authorities, to not point out Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s political future….. Gibson, a nurse practitioner who has made defending abortion rights central to her marketing campaign, has largely retreated from the general public sphere for the reason that scandal broke (she is, nevertheless, nonetheless canvassing and operating political advertisements)…. Thus far, the scandal has barely registered as an precise marketing campaign situation, a minimum of not within the type of aggressive political promoting or public condemnations from her Republican opponent. Why, precisely, is more durable to pinpoint. Gibson’s livestreams along with her husband seem like consensual, and didn’t break any legal guidelines. There’s a query of judgment, and damaged social norms, however this isn’t sexual assault or predatory conduct — and for millennia, males have been doing far worse. ‘I don’t suppose anyone is aware of fairly what to do with this story,’ says Richard Meagher, a political science professor at Randolph-Macon Faculty. There’s no ‘Clintonesque” downside, Meagher says: ‘It’s simply actually onerous within the post-Trump period to search out any disqualifying occasions or expertise that may stop (candidates) from operating. I simply don’t know that the Democrats are going to desert her due to this. Individuals have very brief reminiscences lately.’ Time will inform. How a lot the state celebration has been prepared to place into Gibson’s marketing campaign for the reason that scandal went public is unclear (state finance reviews for September are due this week). And the place voters fall on the morality of all of it — whether or not Gibson is or isn’t match for workplace — stays an open query.” • Properly, a minimum of Gibson didn’t work for the CIA. So there’s that.

* * *

Republican Funhouse

“Home More likely to Decide Speaker This Week. However how or whom stays unclear” [Election Law Blog]. “As this round-up exhibits, it stays fairly unclear who will emerge or how. Jim Jordan can solely afford to lose 4 Home Republicans. Punchbowl reviews, nevertheless, that Mike Rogers of Alabama is organizing to oppose Jordan, and “[s]ources concerned within the effort inform us that there are upwards of 10 lawmakers firmly within the ‘By no means Jordan’ camp.” Politico can also be reporting on this effort. In the meantime, the Hill reviews on each Jordon’s efforts to invoke the disaster to shore up help and Jeffries claims that casual conversations are afoot on a bi-partisan election of Speaker.” • Time for Jordan to head for the showers?

“The ‘Unprecedented’ Home GOP Meltdown Isn’t as Novel as You Assume. And There Is a Method Out” [Politico]. “Between 1937 and 1964, Democrats maintained a technical majority for all however 4 years (1947-49 and 1953-55). However in actuality, an off-the-cuff coalition of Southern Democrats and conservative Republicans denied nationwide Democrats a functioning majority. By the point John F. Kennedy assumed the presidency, the Home was so deadlocked and dysfunctional that it had all however given up on passing routine appropriations payments — strikingly much like at present…. As most college students of historical past know, within the mid-Sixties, nationwide Democrats broke the conservative stranglehold in Congress. They did so for 3 causes. First, Kennedy’s assassination gave the brand new president, Lyndon Johnson, a possibility to name for daring motion to “end” the work of his slain predecessor. Johnson skillfully channeled the nation’s grief to launch a full-throated effort for civil rights and anti-poverty laws. Second, the 1964 election cycle noticed nationwide Democrats sweep each Home and Senate elections, changing conservative Republicans with liberal Democrats and thus undermining the conservative coalition. Assuming nobody wins a landslide majority in Congress within the present, polarized setting, the third cause is most instructive at present. Between 1964 and 1968, average and liberal Republicans discovered frequent trigger with nationwide Democrats in Congress to kind a brand new, casual governing majority that changed the outdated conservative coalition.” • Heaven assist us, the centrists on either side of the aisle will uncover they share a bond….

* * *

On polling:

My first Mastodon embed; let’s see the way it goes!

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I must do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in truth, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Word, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Vaccines

“Covid Nasal Vaccines Get A Enhance” [Eric Topol, Ground Truths]. “Whereas there isn’t any main wave of Covid infections in the intervening time, the variety of people who find themselves nonetheless getting contaminated or reinfected every day is substantial. We’ve got no good option to stop these infections moreover non-pharmacological interventions (masks, bodily distancing, air air flow and filtration, and so on). Photographs present solely average (30-40% discount) and transient (<6-8 weeks) safety from infections. Pandemic fatigue is full blown; the world is doing all attainable to maneuver on though the virus forges forward on its evolutionary arc, destined to search out new methods to contaminate (and largely reinfect) extra hosts. There are recognized variants, at present at low ranges, that will likely be extra problematic than what we’re seeing proper now (such because the FLips, just lately reviewed) with a brand new wave prone to be seen in November. Regardless of our progress with up to date XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccines and Paxlovid availability, these infections carry a threat, a few of which is unpredictable, for extreme Covid and Lengthy Covid. The massive hole in our armamentarium is a simple to manage, sturdy, potent, variant-proof, protected nasal vaccine that blocks infections and transmission.” • A great evaluation of the sector of play, and the introduction laying out the reasonin behind nasal vaccines is excellent. The Codagenix Section 1 nasal vaccine (“CoviLiv”) is “live-attenuated intranasal,” so perhaps we might get out of the mRNA field.

“Section III Pivotal comparative scientific trial of intranasal (iNCOVACC) and intramuscular COVID 19 vaccine (Covaxin®)” [Nature]. I’m embarassed to say I missed this (Twitter’s deterioration once more, I believe). Lastly any individual assessments Bharat’s nasal vaccine moreover Bharat! From August, nonetheless germane. The Dialogue: “On this report of the interim findings from a section 3 scientific trial, we discovered that two weeks after a second vaccination with BBV154 [Bharat iNCOVACC], an intranasal, adenoviral-vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, neutralization titres towards wild-type (D614G) SARS-CoV-2 virus have been superior to these noticed two weeks after two doses of the intramuscular Covaxin vaccine. Equally, the intranasal vaccine induced considerably greater cross-neutralizing responses towards the BA.5 sub-lineage of the Omicron variant. Along with these humoral responses, we additionally detected greater mucosal (sIgA) antibodies at Day 42 following BBV154 in contrast with Covaxin administration. These outcomes have been additional supported by statistically vital will increase of IgA-secreting plasmablasts on Day 42, in contrast with Day 0 within the BBV154 group… On this research, the mixed incidence charges of native and systemic adversarial occasions after the primary and second doses of BBV154 are strikingly decrease than the charges reported for different SARS-CoV-2 vaccine platform candidates. Nonetheless, different vaccine research enrolled completely different populations and employed various approaches to measure adversarial occasions. Nonetheless, the intranasal route of administration was effectively tolerated as compared with the injected Covaxin management vaccine, with fewer than 5% and three% of vaccinees reporting native or systemic adversarial occasions.” N = 3160.

Scientific Communication

“The Coronavirus Nonetheless Doesn’t Care About Your Emotions” [The Nation]. “[I]f there’s one factor we’ve realized, three and a half years into the present disaster, it’s that—opposite to what the films taught us—pandemics don’t robotically spawn terror-stricken stampedes within the streets. Media and public well being protection have a robust hand in shaping public response and may—underneath the mistaken circumstances—promote indifference, incaution, and even apathy. A really seen instance of this was the sharp drop within the variety of individuals masking after the CDC revised its tips in 2021, recommending that masking was not crucial for the vaccinated (from 90 % in Might to 53 % in September). As that instance suggests, emphasizing the message ‘don’t panic’ places the cart earlier than the horse until tangible measures are being taken to stop panic-worthy outcomes. And certainly, these repeated assurances towards panic have arguably additionally preempted a extra vigorous and pressing public well being response—in addition to perversely growing public acceptance of the dangers posed by coronavirus an infection and the unchecked transmission of the virus. This ‘ethical calm‘—a type of manufactured consent—impedes threat mitigation by selling the underestimation of a menace. Soothing public messaging throughout disasters can usually result in an elevated demise toll: Tragically, false reassurance contributed to mortality in each the assaults on the World Commerce Heart and the sinking of the Titanic.” • Value studying in full. On “ethical calm”–

“The Ethical Calm Earlier than the Storm: How a Principle of Ethical Calms Explains the Covid-Associated Enhance in Mother and father’ Refusal of Vaccines for Kids” (preprint) [socArXiv]. “To additional clarify these patterns, I provide a concept of ‘ethical calm.’ Drawing on the idea of ethical panic (Cohen 1972; Goode and Ben-Yehuda 1994), I outline ethical calms as conditions marked by a scarcity of widespread concern of some doubtlessly dangerous phenomenon. As pre-pandemic analysis has proven, anti-vaccine activists don’t simply attempt to persuade others that vaccines are harmful; in addition they argue that vaccines are largely pointless, on the grounds that vaccine-preventable illnesses pose minimal menace to younger, ‘wholesome’ individuals (Estep and Greenberg 2020; Prislin et al. 1998; Reich 2016b, 2016a, 2020a; Ten Kate, Koster, and Van der Waal 2021). Primarily, anti-vaccine activists try to advertise not solely an ethical panic round vaccines but in addition an ethical calm round vaccine-preventable illnesses.” And never simply Covid; measles and MMR typically. Extra: “Constructing on these findings, I’ll present that messages from public well being consultants within the early levels of the pandemic inadvertently helped create a ‘ethical calm’ round kids and Covid-19. These messages, which portrayed kids, and notably white, ‘wholesome” kids as being at low threat of contracting, transmitting, and getting critically unwell from the illness….” As a result of “we” didn’t need college closures? Extra: “… led many moms to understand the vaccine as pointless for his or her kids, even when that they had by no means beforehand refused vaccines. Perceiving the vaccine as pointless opened the door for moms to have interaction with misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines, which then led moms to see the vaccine as doubtlessly extra dangerous to their kids than the illness itself. In the end, I conclude that the coupling of an ethical calm round kids and Covid and an ethical panic round Covid vaccines created an ideal storm of rhetoric and sentiments, main a considerable variety of dad and mom to resolve that they might, a minimum of initially, refuse to vaccinate their kids towards Covid-19.” • I believe the ethical calm thought is fascinating. I’m undecided mRNA vaccines is the place I’d attempt the concept out.

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, almost certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with character modifications therefrom.

* * *

“Neurologic Results of SARS-CoV-2 Transmitted amongst Canine” [Emerging Infections Diseases, CDC]. From the Summary: “We noticed substantial mind pathology in SARS-CoV-2–contaminated canine, notably involving blood–mind barrier harm resembling small vessel illness, together with modifications in tight junction proteins, decreased laminin ranges, and decreased pericyte protection. Moreover, we detected phosphorylated tau, a marker of neurodegenerative illness, indicating a possible hyperlink between SARS-CoV-2–related small vessel illness and neurodegeneration. Our findings of degenerative modifications within the canine mind throughout SARS-CoV-2 an infection emphasize the potential for transmission to different hosts and induction of comparable indicators and signs. The dynamic mind modifications in canine spotlight that even asymptomatic people contaminated with SARS-CoV-2 might develop neuropathologic modifications within the mind.” • On the brilliant facet, perhaps individuals who don’t care about infecting their kids will care about infecting their canine.

Elite Maleficence

BoJo to the Hague Tribunal:

And right here it’s, the doc about #LongCovid on which @BorisJohnson scrawled “Bollocks. That is Gulf Battle Syndrome Stuff”. A doc describing critical ongoing signs and the necessity for extra recognition and help for sufferers.#CovidInquiry#WeNeedAnswers#LongCovidRuinsLives pic.twitter.com/Fq32C5v8yY

— Lengthy Covid Assist 🌍 (@long_covid) October 13, 2023

Extroverts are gonna kill us all:

‘Brunch and concert events’, the brand new bread and circuses.

— SodiumContent 🧂✨ (He/Him/They/Them) (@thesaltynsassy) October 14, 2023

One wonders, as neurological harm turns into an increasing number of evident, whether or not menus will likely be steadily simplified, and naturally the dishes, too (as style goes?).

Lambert right here: No level watching the tape; the CDC snarled it, by (combined metaphor) decapitating the nationwide supply of wastewater knowledge, with out which we’ve got no present case knowledge in any respect (though we are able to at all times verify our native sewage plant). Mandy, good job!

Case Knowledge

NEVER TO BE UPDATED From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 2:

Lambert right here: Leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card! Maybe FL.1.5.1, excessive within the Northeast, has one thing going for it that different variants don’t have?

Regional knowledge:

Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

• “CDC ends Biobot Analytics contract for wastewater surveillance of COVID pandemic” [WSWS]. “As of September 27, 2023, one of many few dependable sources of data on the actual state of the COVID pandemic within the US was halted….. As an alternative, the CDC awarded the $38 million contract for up-to-five years to Verily (previously Google Life Sciences) on September 26, 2023. Nonetheless, a look into Verily’s COVID dashboard, WastewaterSCAN, gives little by way of understandable knowledge in regional or nationwide phrases. It merely states, ‘Medium: Downward pattern and medium focus within the final 21 days.’… It seems that the disruption in wastewater knowledge is . Such shifts in contracts often happen over a span of time to guarantee a seamless transition on the information being introduced…. Biobot Analytics was alone in monitoring the complete course of the summer time wave, enabling an appreciative public to take what self-protective measures they may and offering important data to medical science and public well being efforts. The hostility of the CDC and its political and company masters to this effort—they evidently regarded knowledge assortment on COVID as extra harmful than the deadly illness itself—little doubt accounts for the choice to award the wastewater knowledge monitoring contract to a unique firm.” • After CDC’s felony “inexperienced map,” I can imagine something of them. Nonetheless, though eliminating real-time knowledge is dangerous, handing wastewater knowledge over to certainly one of Google’s tentacles is worse. Once more, Google is thought to (a) monetize knowledge, and (b) recreation public-facing knowledge (1) for revenue, and (2) when the Censorship Industrial Complicated tells them to (say, to “stop panic”). That is very dangerous. Google is just dangerous for knowledge hygiene, they usually shouldn’t be let close to public well being knowledge.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: September 30 is tomorrow, however by no means thoughts that. High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“), with HV.1 a robust second, and XBB.1.1.16.6 and FL.1.15.1 trailing. No BA.2.86. Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, September 16:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities minimize by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 7:

Drop coinciding with wastewater drop.

NOTE “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, though CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of October 16:

Nonetheless reducing. (New York State is now falling, too.) I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading. NOTE I ponder why they they lightened up the shade of gray (MANAGER: “That darkish gray is miserable!”).

Right here’s a unique CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, a minimum of. September 30:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 9:

-1.0%. Nonetheless dropping, although lower than earlier than. (It could be fascinating to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and received examined anyhow.)

From Cleveland Clinic, October 7:

Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, September 25:

Again up once more, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:

BA.2.86 shrinks. Flash within the pan?

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their technique: “These knowledge have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,178,851 – 1,178,704 = 147 (147 * 365 = 53,655 deaths per yr, at present’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would love, although they will discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must resolve that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness). 

Extra Deaths

NOT UPDATED The Economist, October 13:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to -4.6 in October 2023 from 1.9 in September, in comparison with forecasts of -7, and displaying that enterprise exercise within the New York state edged decrease.”

Tech: “I wrote the e book on user-friendly design. What I see at present horrifies me” [Don Norman, Fast Company]. “Regardless of our growing numbers the world appears to be designed towards the aged. On a regular basis family items require knives and pliers to open. Containers with screw tops require extra power than my spouse or I can muster. (We resolve this by utilizing a plumber’s wrench to show the caps.) Corporations insist on printing important directions in tiny fonts with very low distinction. Labels can’t be learn with out flashlights and magnifying lenses. And when firms do design issues particularly for the aged, they are usually ugly units that shout out to the world ‘I’m outdated and may’t perform!’ We are able to do higher.” • And that’s earlier than we get to cellphones. Commentary:

The Financial system: “If the Financial system Is So Sturdy, Why Are Shopper Shares Tanking?” [Wall Street Journal]. “Though the U.S. economic system typically seems to be buzzing alongside, firms throughout the retail spectrum have steered customers are beginning to train extra warning with their purchases. The most recent fall within the shares additionally coincides with a fast rise in Treasury yields, which reduces the attraction of the staples shares particularly as a result of they’re usually seen as dividend performs…. Greenback Basic is among the many firms which have stated its prospects are shopping for fewer discretionary objects whereas opting to select up meals and different necessities, leaving the corporate with a listing of unsold items.”

Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 36 Concern (earlier shut: 28 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 30 (Excessive Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 16 at 1:38:21 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 186. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra sincere than most! • Israel/Palestine blows up, and the Rapture isn’t nearer?!

Video games

“This New Hand-Painted Video Recreation Takes Place Inside Claude Monet’s Eyeball” [Smithsonian]. “Australian designer and developer Pat Naoum spent seven years creating the sport, which takes gamers on a colourful, 12-level journey by way of Monet’s iris, per Artnet’s Min Chen. To progress within the recreation, gamers should resolve puzzles whereas operating alongside inexperienced vines and thru scenes depicted in a few of Monet’s work. In doing so, in addition they assist Monet full his works. Naoum hand-painted the complete recreation, a course of that took over 2,000 hours. He then realized to code so he might digitize his art work and make it interactive—all whereas holding down a day job as an internet designer.” • Neat!

The Gallery

Actually speaks to the railfan in me:

Class Warfare

“Cultivating community-based participatory analysis (CBPR) to answer the COVID-19 pandemic: an illustrative instance of partnership and matter prioritization within the meals providers business” [BMC Public Health]. “Key findings have been that meals service staff (1) have been supplied office COVID-19 droplet-based protections that have been inadequate towards a highly-infectious airborne sickness, (2) needed to make tough selections about well being and security with restricted definitive public well being steerage and structural helps, (3) confronted appreciable stressors and psychological well being considerations, particularly despair, anxiousness, and substance use, with restricted counseling help, (4) proceed to expertise long-term well being, psychological well being, and monetary impacts, and (5) need extra help to stop in-home COVID-19 transmission and acquire extra help round well being, psychological well being, and monetary well-being within the meals service business.”

“Exploring Gender Bias in Six Key Domains of Tutorial Science: An Adversarial Collaboration” [Exploring Gender Bias in Six Key Domains of Academic Science: An Adversarial Collaboration]. From the Summary: “Opposite to the omnipresent claims of sexism in these domains showing in high journals and the media, our findings present that tenure-track girls are at parity with tenure-track males in three domains (grant funding, journal acceptances, and advice letters) and are advantaged over males in a fourth area (hiring). For educating scores and salaries, we discovered proof of bias towards girls; though gender gaps in wage have been a lot smaller than usually claimed, they have been however regarding. Even within the 4 domains by which we failed to search out proof of sexism disadvantaging girls, we however acknowledge that broad societal structural elements should impede girls’s development in tutorial science. Given the substantial sources directed towards decreasing gender bias in tutorial science, it’s crucial to develop a transparent understanding of when and the place such efforts are justified and of how sources can finest be directed to mitigate sexism when and the place it exists.”

Information of the Wired

“Neglect privateness: you’re horrible at focusing on anyway” [OpenWarr]. “The state of customized suggestions is surprisingly horrible. At this level, the highest advice is at all times a clickbait rage-creating article about film stars or no matter Trump did or didn’t do within the final 6 hours. Or if not an article, then a video or documentary. That’s not what I wish to learn or to look at, however I typically get sucked in anyway, after which it’s advice apocalypse time, as a result of the algorithm now thinks I like studying about Trump, and now all the things is Trump. .” • Phrases to dwell by! (Additionally, written in 2019. If something, extra true at present.)

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are effective! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Angie Neer:

Angie Neer writes: “Fireweed and evergreens, close to Mount Rainier, WA.”

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