2:00PM Water Cooler 10/18/2023 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Music of the Day

Tree Swallow, Pilgrim Scorching Springs Rd, off Kougarok Rd. Nome Census Space, Alaska, United States.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“What Mates Owe Mates” [Richard Haass, Foreign Affairs]. “The Biden administration has banked huge goodwill with the Israeli authorities and other people on account of the president’s extraordinary October 10 speech, Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s go to to Israel final week, and the choice to produce Israel with what it wants militarily. Mario Cuomo, who served because the governor of New York, as soon as remarked {that a} politician campaigns in poetry however governs in prose. President Joe Biden’s speech was poetry, however the time has come for prose, finest delivered in non-public. Each the USA and Israel ought to wish to keep away from an consequence that entails Israel being pressured right into a cease-fire amid broad condemnation regionally and globally. Arab governments, together with Saudi Arabia, might reinforce that message in addition to assist to facilitate the discharge of Israeli hostages and sign to Israel that normalization might proceed after the warfare ends if Israel is seen to have acted responsibly.” • Little question!

“‘You aren’t alone’: Biden attends Israeli warfare cupboard assembly” (video) [MSNBC, YouTube]. “ and met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu throughout a go to to Tel Aviv amid the warfare with Hamas.” • That’s fully unseemly. On the brilliant aspect, at the least any notion that the U.S. is or will be an “trustworthy dealer” has been erased.

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

* * *

“The Gag Order Contempt Lure” [Declassified with Julie Kelly]. “Right here is the crux of the order”:

“However two issues beg for readability. One, ‘directing others to make any public statements’ seems to fulfill Smith’s request that the gag order prohibit ‘surrogates’ from making unacceptable feedback. What does that imply? Who, in Chutkan’s thoughts, are ‘others’ and who decides in the event that they’ve been directed by Trump or his attorneys? Does it apply to Trump’s marketing campaign spokesmen, his members of the family, and even supportive members of Congress? How will the “directing” caveat be happy? An FBI raid adopted by interrogation? Second, the blanket time period ‘fairly foreseeable witness’ creates a gaping contempt entice. In the course of the listening to, Chutkan and Smith’s workforce made clear that unfavorable feedback about former Vice President Mike Pence, former Lawyer Normal William Barr, and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Employees Mark Milley can be forbidden since they could be known as as authorities witnesses within the March 2024 trial. (It’s extremely unlikely any would comply with testify.) However who else does that embrace? Smith’s indictment refers to dozens of people tied to the 2020 election together with Republican officers in swing states who might be thought of ‘fairly foreseeable witnesses.’ Does that imply Trump can’t criticize, say, Republican Georgia Governor Brian Kemp? What about Democratic governors in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania who are also talked about in Smith’s indictment? Does the gag order cowl any and all feedback concerning the 2020 election, a problem Trump continues to debate on the marketing campaign path and one in every of continued concern to Republican voters?” • All Trump has to do is attempt some apophasisa (“Now, I’m not saying Jack Smith is slender between the eyes….”).

* * *

“Do the mathematics,” an order liberal Democrats are keen on issuing:

Plus, Joe Biden owes me 600 bucks.

“Kamala Harris’ recognition at historic lows as a result of she talks to individuals like youngsters, says Marc Thiessen” [Marc Theissen, FOX]. “She has this behavior of speaking about probably the most mundane issues on this deeply profound voice. And when individuals hear that, when individuals hear her say, ‘Transportation is about getting individuals to the place they wish to go,’ and says it in such a profound manner, they assume one in every of two issues. Both they assume she’s silly or they assume, ‘She thinks I’m silly.’ Folks don’t wish to be talked to love a toddler. And so both they simply lose confidence in her or they assume she’s speaking all the way down to them, and that makes her profoundly unpopular.”• Certain, FOX. However he’s not flawed!

* * *

“Editorial: Hamas assaults have been private in South Florida. DeSantis’ swift motion pays off” [Miami Herald]. “On Sunday night time, 270 evacuees landed at Tampa Worldwide Airport, the results of an govt order DeSantis signed on Thursday to constitution flights for Florida residents stranded in Israel. One other flight carrying seven individuals landed in Orlando earlier within the day. DeSantis, who’s operating for president, and his spouse greeted the evacuees in Tampa, the place they shook fingers posed for images. The Herald Editorial Board has criticized DeSantis for exploiting politically fraught moments, as he did with the Southern border disaster when he flew migrants to Martha’s Winery. This time, nonetheless, the governor’s actions have actual penalties and advantages for Floridians and People caught up within the unprecedented assaults by Hamas, which the USA rightly labels a terrorist group. The group murdered complete households, youngsters the aged and music pageant goers, hunted down and executed in chilly blood. Nearly 200 others have been taken hostage, the Israeli navy mentioned Monday. The assaults really feel private for South Florida and different areas of the nation with giant Jewish populations who contribute to each side of our communities and whose traditions have made our melting pot extra vibrant.” • The distinction between DeSantis and Biden is fairly nice (and Trump might have chartered a airplane, if he’d considered it. Or despatched his personal). Fast pondering by DeSantis.

* * *

“Authentic Spin” [Jeffrey Toobin, Airmail]. Skakel was a Kennedy clan member convicted of homicide. “[I]n 2016, Kennedy printed Framed: Why Michael Skakel Spent over a Decade in Jail for a Homicide He Didn’t Commit. The ebook grew to become a best-seller and, extra importantly, now that Kennedy is operating for president, it established a literary—and political—prototype for Kennedy. In Framed, Kennedy took a posh and unfamiliar topic for many readers—right here, a decades-old homicide—and offered a tendentious and deceptive model of the information, tailor-made to his personal preconceptions. Worse but, Kennedy relied on an unpleasant racial stereotype—about “large, muscular, and tall” nonwhite males—to try to pin the homicide on two harmless individuals. Kennedy adopted an analogous method in his later books about vaccines and the coronavirus pandemic: utilizing cherry-picked particulars and bogus insinuations to make a case that his readers, as non-specialists, lacked the experience to refute. Kennedy’s document on a topic as slender because the Moxley homicide or as broad as epidemiology compels the identical conclusion: that he’s a essentially untrustworthy narrator.” An extended article, well worth the unlock. This caught my eye: “The center of Kennedy’s protection of his cousin is that Skakel had what Kennedy describes variously as an “ironclad alibi” and a “gold-plated alibi” as a result of he was on the Terrien residence between 9:30 and 10 P.M., “the established time of Martha’s loss of life.” However that slender window was not “the established” time of her loss of life; in actual fact, the testimony of a number of forensic-science specialists on the trial, based mostly on the crime-scene proof and post-mortem outcomes, confirmed that it was unattainable to pinpoint the exact time of loss of life. In line with their testimony, Moxley might have died any time between 9:30 P.M. on October 30 and 5:30 A.M. the next morning. Kennedy’s elementary distortion of the proof undermines his case for Skakel’s innocence.” • So, attention-grabbing. I bear in mind Toobin from again within the Clinton impeachment days; he was like a Jonathan Turley, however for liberals. After all, that was a very long time in the past….

* * *

“How Gavin Newsom cooled California labor’s scorching streak” [Politico]. “As he builds his profile as a nationwide Democratic chief, Newsom took a center path in his dealing with of labor’s large priorities at residence in California, delivering unions some important wins but additionally checking them in telling methods…. Newsom thwarted unions by rejecting far-reaching responses to financial transformations like automation — embodied by payments providing insurance coverage to putting staff and cracking down on driverless vehicles — together with protections for home staff and safeguards for Starbucks organizing drives. On the opposite aspect of the ledger, he enacted a regulation increasing the variety of sick days employers should present, negotiated a breakthrough quick meals labor deal, and put aside his fiscal reservations to boost the minimal wage for well being care staff.” • Might be positioning himself nationally. Or perhaps he simply hates staff?

* * *

PA: “The Pa. Supreme Courtroom race is ‘the largest sport on the town,’ and teams are spending large on each side” [The Inquirer]. “The race to fill a emptiness on the Pennsylvania Supreme Courtroom is dominating airwaves and mailboxes throughout the state this fall. That’s as a result of each events see it as a high-stakes race — and an necessary check…. The race between Carluccio, at the moment the president choose of the Montgomery County Courtroom of Widespread Pleas, and McCaffery, a state Superior Courtroom choose, has centered on abortion, mail voting, and election legal guidelines — points with stark partisan divides which are more likely to go earlier than the courtroom within the coming yr…. In interviews, the foremost distinction the 2 candidates expressed of their judicial ideologies was what a Supreme Courtroom justice ought to do when the regulation is unclear, or when the Normal Meeting fails to make clear the regulation. Carluccio mentioned the courtroom ought to observe the regulation as written, and mentioned it isn’t the courtroom’s position to fill in any gaps. McCaffery, in the meantime, mentioned he believes it’s the courtroom’s obligation to interpret the legal guidelines and their intent. For instance, McCaffery mentioned the courtroom did its job in 2020 when it created drop bins and a three-day window for mail ballots to reach to counties, whereas the courtroom was extensively criticized by Republicans for creating coverage that didn’t exist within the regulation.”

CA: “Garvey Talks Baseball, Widespread Sense, and Cross-Get together Attraction” [RealClearPolitics]. “This week, because the baseball nice jumped right into a crowded discipline of candidates vying to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, he’s hoping he can translate his capacity to keep up loyal followers from rival sports activities franchises to producing cross-party enchantment. Although his entrance into the race was anticipated for months, Garvey, 74, says he made a ultimate dedication to run after Giants followers began coming as much as him to say, ‘God, we hate the Dodgers, however we’ll vote for you.’ ‘So perhaps that was a precursor for operating for workplace,’ Garvey informed RealClearPolitics Tuesday, declining to say which workforce he now roots for probably the most. “I imply, attempting to be a person for all individuals.’ It’s a message Garvey hopes resonates amongst a broad swath of voters and one that can assist him stand out amongst a deeply partisan slate of candidates that features Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, Barbara Lee, and probably Laphonza Butler, the longtime labor chief [and Uber shill] and abortion-rights advocate Newsom appointed final week to fill the Senate emptiness.

Republican Funhouse

“Jim Jordan With a New Twenty” [The American Conservative]. BWA-HA-HA-HA-HA!!! Even TAC! Extra: “en months in the past, Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, then the Republican nominee for Speaker of the Home, needed to lower a take care of twenty conservative holdouts, nicknamed “the Twenty,” to develop into Speaker. McCarthy’s potential substitute, Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, is now coping with a brand new, very totally different Twenty. Whereas McCarthy was dogged by the Home Freedom Caucus and associates, Jordan faces a blob of establishment-type Republicans composed principally of appropriators, warmongers, and liberals.”

“Jordan’s speakership marketing campaign on its final legs” [Politico]. “Opposition to Jim Jordan’s speakership bid is growing, because the Ohio Republican once more didn’t get the 217 votes he must win the gavel. After halting voting for almost a day in hopes of securing extra Republican votes, Jordan as a substitute misplaced two extra votes on the second poll. The Home then went into one other recess, at Jordan’s request, earlier than a potential third vote. The GOP plans to carry a convention assembly Wednesday afternoon because it retains looking for a manner out of its speaker mess. Jordan’s whole variety of Republican opponents reached 22 on the second spherical of voting. With the listing of defectors rising, even after a major delay, his probabilities on the gavel are trying nearly nonexistent…. [Some Republicans] are overtly floating another: Empowering appearing Speaker Patrick McHenry to maneuver sure laws on the ground.”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, plainly individuals are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Get together (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.

Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

“California Senate race will show whether or not Democrats care about variety” [Steve Phillips, WaPo]. “Again and again it has been proven that . Democrats throughout the nation agree that Black ladies are badly underrepresented in our nation’s management. Schiff and Porter are White; Lee is a Black lady. The fitting course is evident, isn’t it? It could be, anyway, if the individuals had the braveness and ideas to observe it: Schiff and Porter ought to step apart and reembrace their very important management roles within the Home. And the remainder of the state’s Democratic leaders ought to stroll their discuss and throw their clout behind Lee’s bid for the state’s full six-year seat within the Senate.” • Contemplating the important thing position performed by the South Carolina political institution in 2008, 2016 (Clinton), and 2020 (Biden), maybe it’s time for a transplant.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Younger Morality and Previous Morality” [Hamilton Nolan, How Things Work]. “Who’s being infantile right here? Is it the younger school college students, appalled at genocide looming in entrance of their eyes, possessed with the overwhelming urge to do one thing, who—regardless of not possessing a PhD in international affairs—flood into the streets and rage in opposition to the atrocity? Or is it the nicely educated and extremely positioned and influential adults, granted positions of nice significance, who, as a disaster unfolds, as civilians are murdered, as neighborhoods are bombed, as oppression and faith collide in warfare, use their time griping concerning the hotheadedness of the younger individuals protesting within the streets? Which of those teams has extra precisely recognized what needs to be our present matter of consideration—the younger individuals whose focus is on the governments that possess militaries and missiles and are poised to trigger hundreds of deaths, or the adults whose focus is on how some school child mentioned one thing annoying at a DSA rally? Wake the f*ck up. The adults within the room are all over the place proving the children’ critique to be true.”

“Deb Chachra’s ‘How Infrastructure Works’” [Cory Doctorow, Pluralistic]. “Infrastructure isn’t merely a solution to ship life’s requirements – mobility, vitality, sanitation, water, and so forth – it’s a shared manner of delivering these requirements. It’s not simply that economies of scale and community results don’t merely make it extra environment friendly and cheaper to supply these requirements to entire populations. It’s additionally that the dearth of those community and scale results make it unimaginable that these requirements might be supplied to all of us with out being a part of a collective, public undertaking. The dream of declaring independence from society, of going ‘off-grid,’ of rejecting any system of mutual obligation and reliance isn’t merely an childish fantasy – it additionally doesn’t scale, which is ironic, given how scale-obsessed its foremost proponents are of their different passions. Replicating sanitation, water, garbage disposal, and so on to create particular person programs is wildly inefficient. Creating per-person communications programs is not sensible – by definition, communications entails at the least two individuals. So , Chachra reminds us, . It’s a present we give to ourselves, to one another, and to the individuals who come after us. Any rugged individualism is however a skinny raft, floating on an ocean of mutual obligation, mutual support, care and upkeep. Infrastructure is significant and troublesome. Its amortization schedule is so lengthy that normally, it received’t pay for itself till lengthy after the politicians who shepherded it into being are out of workplace (or useless). Its obligation cycle is so lengthy that it may be straightforward to neglect it even exists – particularly because the solely time most of us discover infrastructure is when it stops working.”

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Search for the Helpers

“Signing up and taking part within the November 2-Third Digital HICPAC Assembly” [World Health Network]. “The Oral Public Remark Request Submission Interval will open October 2, 2023, and shut on October 23, 2023.” So there’s nonetheless time. (CDC gatekeeps by requiring a “enterprise e mail deal with,” however WHN says any deal with needs to be OK.) Additionally, you don’t have to enroll to observe: “. The hyperlink to the assembly webcast will likely be posted at their web site shortly earlier than the assembly.” Wonderful work, together with a gathering information and speaking factors. (Hilariously, the minutes and recordings for 2023 are all by outdoors events like WHN; nothing by CDC in any respect.)

Maskstravaganza

“What Went Incorrect with a Extremely Publicized COVID Masks Evaluation?” [Scientific American]. “Cochrane Evaluations base their findings on randomized managed trials (RCTs), usually known as the “gold normal” of scientific proof. However many questions can’t be answered nicely with RCTs, and a few can’t be answered in any respect. Diet is a living proof. It’s virtually unattainable to review diet with RCTs as a result of you’ll be able to’t management what individuals eat, and if you ask them what they’ve eaten, many individuals lie. In truth, there may be robust proof that masks do work to forestall the unfold of respiratory sickness. It simply doesn’t come from RCTs. It comes from Kansas. In July 2020 the governor of Kansas issued an govt order requiring masks in public locations. Only a few weeks earlier, nonetheless, the legislature had handed a invoice authorizing counties to decide out of any statewide provision. Within the months that adopted, COVID charges decreased in all 24 counties with masks mandates and continued to extend in 81 different counties that opted out of them. One other examine discovered that states with masks mandates noticed a major decline within the price of COVID unfold inside simply days of mandate orders being signed. The authors concluded that within the examine interval—March 31 to Could 22, 2020—greater than 200,000 circumstances have been averted, saving cash, struggling and lives…. Cochrane ignored this epidemiological proof as a result of it didn’t meet its inflexible normal. I’ve known as this method ‘methodological fetishism,’ when scientists fixate on a most popular methodology and dismiss research that don’t observe it.” • See NC on Cochrane right here.

Sequelae

“Cognitive-linguistic difficulties in adults with Lengthy COVID: A follow-up examine” [Science Direct]. N = 41. “In abstract, adults with Lengthy COVID displayed considerably weaker efficiency than wholesome adults in rapid and delayed on the 6-month follow-up examine. This was per their poor efficiency in verbal recall within the first examine and indicated that this space of cognitive-linguistic efficiency had not improved in the course of the 6-month interval between the primary and follow-up research. The absence of statistically important variations between adults with Lengthy COVID and wholesome adults on all different language duties indicated that adults with Lengthy COVID had improved their efficiency in a number of areas that have been weak within the first examine. These areas are verbal fluency (letter and class fluency) and discourse informativeness. The truth that adults with Lengthy COVID had successfully closed the hole between their efficiency and that of wholesome adults in verbal fluency and discourse informativeness instructed that there had been some spontaneous enchancment in these cognitive-linguistic abilities within the 6 months between the primary and follow-up research.” • That’s nice, however: PILOT TO TOWER: Uh, are you able to repeat that?

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Numerous exceptionally nasty sequelae, most certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind harm, together with persona adjustments therefrom.

* * *

Elite Maleficence

And the band performed on….

Did we point out our #IDBugBowl planning workforce is the BEST? 💗#IDWeek2023 pic.twitter.com/0ORekQOsab

— IDWeek (@IDWeekmtg) October 15, 2023

Observe that Biobot wastewater information, earlier than CDC choked it off, confirmed that circumstances have been excessive within the Northeast; IDweek is held in Boston, sponsored by the The Infectious Ailments Society of America (IDSA). I really like that each one the collateral for the conferences makes use of the 2LA “ID” (identification?). What ID really stands for — “Infectious Ailments” — is rigorously erased. Unhealthy vibes, little question.

They knew:

“Managers are studying this and freaking out.”

From an e-mail (Apr. 7, 2020) between two former White Home Medical Unit Administrators after CDC suggests risk of airborne transmission.

Discovered on: https://t.co/DAp8hOuM7i pic.twitter.com/maSqAhG1ny

— Maarten De Cock (@mdc_martinus) October 17, 2023

Case Information

NEVER TO BE UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, October 2:

Lambert right here: Leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card! Maybe FL.1.5.1, excessive within the Northeast, has one thing going for it that different variants don’t have?

Regional information:

Apparently, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.

• How you can get on the ridiculously dangerous Verily dashboard now that Biobot’s been axed, a thread:

• Extra on CDC’s completely seamless transition from Biobot to Verily:

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: September 30 is tomorrow, however by no means thoughts that. High of the leaderboard: EG.5 (“Eris“), with HV.1 a robust second, and XBB.1.1.16.6 and FL.1.15.1 trailing. No BA.2.86. Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, September 16:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to amenities lower by directors of unwell intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 7:

Drop coinciding with wastewater drop.

NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for each_{MR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot}. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, although CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of October 17:

Nonetheless reducing. (New York State is now falling, too.) I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading.

• Lambert right here: Since that is the one remaining each day information I acquire, it is a good place to comment that I feel do assume we’re on the draw back of the present surge, proven by wastewater information earlier than CDC defenestrated Biobot, positivity information, and ER visits. Deaths are up, however they’re the laggiest indicators of all. On reflection, as proven by the road on the chart, this was fairly a good little surge, particularly as so many have been attempting to faux it didn’t exist. Public well being institution, good job!

NOT UPDATED Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the least. October 7:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 16:

-0.3%. Nonetheless dropping, although lower than earlier than. (It could be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and received examined anyhow.)

NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 14:

Lambert right here: I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, September 25:

Again up once more, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:

BA.2.86 shrinks. Flash within the pan?

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their technique: “These information have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,179,385 – 1,179,271 = 114 (114 * 365 = 41,610 deaths per yr, right now’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they will discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may need to determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of loss of life and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 18:

Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Housing Begins: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Econmics]. “Housing begins within the US rose by 7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized price of 1.36 million in September of 2023, rebounding from the upwardly revised, three-year low of 1.27 million from the earlier month, however lacking estimates of a sharper 1.38 million begins.”

Inflation:

Yikes!

Inflation:

Do not forget that costs go up as a result of corporations elevate them.

The Bezzle: “Narrative over numbers: Andreessen Horowitz’s State of Crypto report” [Molly White]. “Enterprise capital agency Andreessen Horowitz (aka “a16z”) has invested billions in crypto, elevating 4 separate crypto funds: $350 million in 2018, $515 million in 2020, $2.2 billion in 2021, and $4.5 billion in 2022…. Studying Andreessen Horowitz’s latest State of Crypto report, one wonders in the event that they exist in a parallel universe the place the current ‘crypto winter’ by no means got here to move…. The reality is that Andreessen Horowitz wants crypto to do nicely. With an asset class so depending on sentiment for worth, they appear to be hoping that if they will persuade each their buyers and most of the people that all the things goes simply nice and crypto costs are about to take off once more, they will trigger it to develop into true. The results of this method is an extremely shameless piece of propaganda displaying the extents to which Andreessen Horowitz is keen to govern information and outright lie, hoping to show the sentiment on the crypto business again to the place retail buyers have been offering substantial swimming pools of liquidity with which they might line their pockets. If anybody nonetheless believes that enterprise capital corporations like Andreessen Horowitz are highly effective sources of innovation and societal profit, I hope this may give them pause.” • Capital allocation is a social operate. Or, in Enterprise Capital and Personal Fairness’s case, a dysfunction.

At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 35 Concern (earlier shut: 35 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 31 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 16 at 8:00:00 PM ET.

Class Warfare

“Mike Rowe Desires Extra Thinker-Welders” (interview) [Mike Rowe, Reason]. So did Gramsci; he known as them “natural intellectuals” (which I’m guessing is jail code-switching for social gathering members, however that’s one other story). Rowe: “The rift in our work pressure and the labor scarcity we’re seeing right now will be walked proper again to the second we determined to take store class out of highschool….. After we spoke in 2016, there was a presidential debate. Marco [Rubio]—I neglect what the query was—however he mentioned, ‘What this nation wants are extra welders and fewer philosophers.’ Large applause line. Later that night, hundreds of individuals have been saying, ‘Hey, Mike, this man’s singing your track. This man will get it.’ And I believed, ‘Oh, crap. I’m doing one thing flawed.’ As a result of that’s under no circumstances what I imply. What I responded to within the wake of that was, ‘Look, what our nation wants are extra welders who can discuss intelligently about Descartes and Nietzsche. And what our nation wants are extra philosophers who can run an excellent bead.’ It’s not this or that.” Amen. I don’t know why I’ve to go to a libertarian to listen to this, for pity’s sake. And: “7.2 million able-bodied males in prime working age are sitting out the work pressure—not simply not working, however affirmatively not searching for work. That’s new. That’s by no means occurred in peacetime.” • I don’t assume a job is identical factor as work (“software of pressure alongside a displacement”). Work isn’t at all times nice, nevertheless it’s usually nice. Gardening is figure, studying is figure, portray (home or canvas) is figure, parenting is figure. Love is figure. Making stone axes, or baskets, or portray cave partitions is figure. Work is extremely adaptive. Jobs then again…. I can’t be judgy about individuals who determined to “sit this one out” re: jobs. It’s like Veblen’s distinction between business and enterprise. Work is within the business bucket; jobs are within the enterprise bucket.

“A employee between intellectuals” (interview) [Paul Mattick, The Anarchist Library]. Mattick noticed quite a bit: “Initially of WWI, all Germany’s inhabitants was enthusiastic concerning the warfare. In 1914, the leaders of the employees’ motion, which partly didn’t mirror the crowds’ enthusiasm, accepted this state of issues in order to not be engulfed by the chauvinist wave that had concerned the adherents of the employees’ motion, events and unions. The working class was built-in within the system, each ideologically and on the organizational entrance. Naturally no person anticipated the way it was all going to finish, and only one yr after the beginning of the warfare, even the passion washed away in each warring nation, leaving place to distress, struggling and discontent more and more seen.” • Price a learn for the historic sweep.

Information of the Wired

Sadly, I’m not wired right now.

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From EM:

EM writes: “It’s probably the most great time of the yr, particularly mushroom time.”

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